Date: 26 September 2024
Broker: UOB Kay Hian (Hong Kong) Limited
1. Company Overview
Li Auto Inc. (stock code: 2015 HK) is a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer specializing in the design, development, manufacturing, and sales of smart electric vehicles. The company is a key player in the growing EV market, offering extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs) to Chinese consumers.
2. Sales Performance (38th Week of 2024)
- Insurance Registrations: In the 38th week of 2024, Li Auto recorded 12,000 insurance registrations, a 33.3% year-on-year increase and a 3.4% month-on-month increase. However, the registrations dropped 4.8% week-on-week.
- Cumulative Sales: Li Auto’s cumulative insurance registrations for the first 38 weeks of 2024 totaled 328,274 units, reflecting strong growth as the company targets 500,000 units for 2024.
3. 2024 Delivery Targets
- Estimated Deliveries: Li Auto’s management has set an ambitious delivery target for 2024, aiming to deliver between 560,000 and 640,000 units. However, UOB Kay Hian estimates deliveries for 2024 to be around 500,000 units.
4. Financial Forecasts (2024-2026)
UOB Kay Hian maintains its financial forecasts for Li Auto, projecting net profits for the coming years as follows:
- 2024 Net Profit: RMB 4,814 million
- 2025 Net Profit: RMB 4,355 million
- 2026 Net Profit: RMB 3,941 million
These forecasts are based on projected deliveries of 500,000 units in 2024, 550,000 units in 2025, and 600,000 units in 2026.
5. Market Position
Li Auto continues to strengthen its presence in the Chinese EV market with a focus on scaling up deliveries. The company’s steady growth trajectory, supported by strong sales performance, is a testament to its ability to meet its ambitious goals, although competition in the EV space remains intense.
6. Investment Outlook
Li Auto is on track to meet its 2024 delivery target and remains a significant player in the EV market. While the company’s insurance registrations showed a slight decline week-on-week, the overall year-on-year growth and strong financial forecasts suggest that Li Auto is positioned for continued expansion in the coming years.
