Thursday, December 19th, 2024

Mapletree Industrial Trust Expands in Japan with Promising Redevelopment Potential

Date: 3 October 2024
Broker Name: UOB Kay Hian


Alpha Picks Performance

In September 2024, the Alpha Picks portfolio outperformed the Straits Times Index (STI), rising 5.4% month-on-month (mom), while the STI increased by 4.1% mom. On a quarterly basis, the portfolio rose by 7.9% quarter-on-quarter (qoq), surpassing the STI’s performance by 0.3ppt for 3Q24. This marked the 11th time in 12 months that the Alpha Picks portfolio outperformed the STI and six out of the past eight quarters.

Key Drivers of September’s Performance

Top performers in September included industrial players like:

  • Seatrium (+20.3% mom)
  • Sembcorp Industries (+12.4% mom)
  • Genting Singapore (+8.7% mom)

These companies experienced gains due to positive sentiment towards the industrials sector and China’s stimulus measures, boosting regional investor confidence.

However, underperformers for the month were:

  • CSE Global (-10.4% mom), impacted by one-off negative news flow.
  • Mapletree Industrial Trust (-0.4% mom), affected by a rotation into laggard REITs.

Strategy for October 2024

For October 2024, UOB Kay Hian adds several China plays to the portfolio, including:

  • CapitaLand Investment (CLI)
  • China Sunsine (CSSC)
  • DFI Retail

Additionally, SATS was added due to freight disruptions in the US caused by labor unrest. On the other hand, Singtel was removed due to limited short-term catalysts for its stock price.

The updated Alpha Picks portfolio for October 2024 now consists of the following companies:

  • CLI
  • CSSC
  • Civmec (CSE)
  • DFI
  • Frencken
  • Genting Singapore (GENS)
  • Lendlease REIT (LREIT)
  • Mapletree Industrial Trust (MINT)
  • OCBC
  • SATS
  • Seatrium (STM)
  • Sembcorp Industries (SCI)
  • Singapore Post (SPOST)
  • Venture Corp (VMS)

Mapletree Industrial Trust (MINT SP/BUY/S$2.50/Target: S$3.05)

Overview of Expansion in Japan

Mapletree Industrial Trust (MINT) continues to enlarge its scale in Japan, securing a purchase agreement for an effective interest of 98.47% in a mixed-use facility in West Tokyo, valued at ¥14.5 billion (approximately S$129.8 million). This acquisition, representing a 3.3% discount to the independent valuation of ¥15.0 billion, presents significant redevelopment potential.

The facility comprises three primary components:

  • A data center (28%)
  • Back office and training facilities (48%)
  • An adjacent accommodation wing (24%)

The strategic location of the property, situated on a 91,200-square-foot freehold site within the network-dense Tama-shi area of West Tokyo, positions it as a prime data center hub. West Tokyo accounts for 40% of total live IT supply within the Greater Tokyo market, making it a critical cluster for data infrastructure.

Redevelopment Potential

The acquired property has the potential to be redeveloped into a multi-storey core & shell data center with a capacity of 30-40 MW of IT workload. The estimated redevelopment cost ranges between S$200 million and S$300 million, with the potential to enhance the yield on cost to 5.5%-6.0%.

MINT’s exposure to Japan is expected to increase from 5.1% to 6.4% of its total assets under management (AUM) after the acquisition.

Outlook and Recommendation

MINT maintains a solid distribution yield of 5.6% for FY26, positioning itself competitively against its peers. This includes:

  • DCREIT: 5.9% yield
  • KDCREIT: 4.4% yield

With a target price of S$3.05, UOB Kay Hian maintains its BUY recommendation for MINT, citing favorable growth prospects through the expansion in Japan and the potential redevelopment of its recent acquisition.

Key Share Price Catalysts

  • Further growth in data centers across Singapore, Japan, and the US.
  • Potential acquisition of the remaining 50% stake in a portfolio of 13 data centers from its sponsor, Mapletree Investments.
  • Redevelopment of older properties into high-tech industrial parks in Singapore.

    CapitaLand Investment (CLI) – BUY

    Target Price: S$4.04
    Upside: 28.3%
    Last Price: S$3.15
    CLI has been bolstered by recent stimulus measures from China. 16% of its revenue and nearly 20% of its real estate investment business’ EBITDA are derived from China. CLI’s valuation is currently inexpensive at a P/B ratio of 0.9x for 2025 compared to a peak P/B ratio of 1.4x in 2023. The stock has already risen by 15% in September, reflecting strong investor sentiment. The company’s outlook remains promising, bolstered by China’s economic recovery and internal capital recycling efforts. CLI’s asset management arm is also expected to gain from new renminbi fund opportunities.


    China Sunsine Chemical – BUY

    Target Price: S$0.46
    Upside: (6.1%)
    Last Price: S$0.49
    China Sunsine saw a strong 6% YoY growth in rubber chemical sales in 1H24, driven by higher capacity utilization rates. As automakers in China reported a 6% increase in sales, and electric vehicle sales surged 32% YoY in the first half of 2024, Sunsine’s sales volumes are expected to maintain steady growth. The company offers a dividend yield of around 5%, backed by a healthy cash balance of RMB1.75 billion. Despite current ASPs being flat, the Chinese government’s recent economic stimulus measures are likely to drive further improvements in demand and ASPs in the coming months.


    Civmec – BUY

    Target Price: S$1.32
    Upside: 30.7%
    Last Price: S$1.01
    Civmec’s orderbook is valued at A$821 million and the company continues to secure large-scale contracts across various sectors. Its tendering activities remain at historically high levels, with opportunities approaching A$10 billion. Civmec has signed several new contracts, including working on brownfield projects for WesCEF and providing services for Chevron’s Gorgon CCS system. The company trades at a significant discount to its Australian peers, presenting an attractive investment opportunity. The current PE ratio is 8x for FY25F, and management anticipates strong order book growth to continue.


    CSE Global – BUY

    Target Price: S$0.59
    Upside: 32.6%
    Last Price: S$0.45
    CSE Global has an orderbook of S$692 million, with infrastructure projects accounting for 72% of the pipeline. The company has focused on growth strategies aligned with decarbonization and electrification trends. A recent site visit to CSE’s electrification business in Houston reinforced the positive outlook, with high demand from sectors such as data centers and LNG terminals. The company is planning to expand its current facility size to meet increasing demand. The stock offers an attractive growth opportunity with robust demand anticipated in the medium term.


    DFI Retail Group (USD) – BUY

    Target Price: US$2.57
    Upside: 13.2%
    Last Price: US$2.27
    DFI Retail Group has experienced challenges in its food division but has improved its outlook with the removal of the Yonghui burden. The company is focusing on accelerating profit growth in the convenience and ready-to-eat (RTE) segments, especially in Hong Kong and Singapore. The stock is trading at 16.7x PE, 1SD below its historical mean, which presents a buying opportunity as the company transitions to a more favorable outlook following restructuring efforts.


    Frencken Group – BUY

    Target Price: S$1.74
    Upside: 30.8%
    Last Price: S$1.33
    Frencken’s growth prospects remain robust with strong order books across the semiconductor, automotive, and healthcare sectors. The company is expected to post steady revenue growth, supported by its diversified portfolio and strong client relationships. Despite the stock’s recent price movements, the 2024E PE of 13x is still seen as attractive by the market.


    Genting Singapore – BUY

    Target Price: S$1.18
    Upside: 34.1%
    Last Price: S$0.88
    Genting Singapore’s recovery continues as higher tourist numbers and a premiumization strategy drive profitability. Spending per capita has risen by over 20%, and the company’s revamped offerings, particularly in the non-gaming segment, have shown strong results. With a large net cash balance of S$3.7 billion, Genting Singapore is well-positioned to pursue new growth avenues. The company’s balance sheet and cash flow support a compelling investment case, with further upside potential as Chinese tourism continues to recover.


    Lendlease REIT – BUY

    Target Price: S$0.77
    Upside: 23.2%
    Last Price: S$0.625
    Lendlease REIT is set to benefit from its diversified property portfolio and strong backing from its sponsor. The company’s development pipeline includes several high-profile projects in Singapore. With a forecasted yield of over 6%, Lendlease REIT provides an attractive opportunity for income-seeking investors. Furthermore, the REIT is positioned to capitalize on recovery trends in the retail sector as footfall returns to pre-pandemic levels.


    Mapletree Industrial Trust (MINT) – BUY

    Target Price: S$3.05
    Upside: 22.0%
    Last Price: S$2.50
    MINT’s expansion into Japan and further acquisitions are expected to drive revenue growth. The trust’s well-diversified portfolio in industrial and data center assets continues to offer stability and upside. With a 5.4% yield and a steady pipeline of potential redevelopment projects, MINT remains a core holding for investors seeking stable returns in the industrial REIT space.


    OCBC Bank – BUY

    Target Price: S$18.50
    Upside: 23.6%
    Last Price: S$14.97
    OCBC Bank has been highlighted for its strong capital position and growth prospects, particularly as interest rates stabilize. The bank is expected to post robust earnings growth, driven by its diversified loan book and improving asset quality. With a forecasted dividend yield of 5.9%, OCBC offers a compelling investment opportunity for those seeking both growth and income.


    SATS Ltd – BUY

    Target Price: S$4.00
    Upside: 7.0%
    Last Price: S$3.74
    SATS continues to focus on expanding its operations across Asia, particularly in the inflight catering and gateway services sectors. While the stock has underperformed recently, long-term prospects remain bright, with expected earnings recovery as air travel resumes to pre-pandemic levels. The stock is trading at a reasonable valuation, making it an attractive entry point for long-term investors.


    Seatrium – BUY

    Target Price: S$2.31
    Upside: 32.0%
    Last Price: S$1.75
    Seatrium is expected to benefit from higher oil prices and increased demand for offshore construction projects. With a growing orderbook and improvements in operational efficiency, the company is well-positioned to capture further upside from the recovering energy sector. Seatrium’s balance sheet has strengthened, and its current valuation of n.a presents a strong buying opportunity.


    Sembcorp Industries – BUY

    Target Price: S$7.47
    Upside: 35.1%
    Last Price: S$5.53
    Sembcorp Industries is expected to outperform, driven by its strong presence in renewable energy. The company’s strategic pivot towards sustainable energy solutions positions it well for long-term growth. With an improving earnings outlook and significant projects in the pipeline, Sembcorp offers substantial upside.


    SingPost – BUY

    Target Price: S$0.61
    Upside: 31.2%
    Last Price: S$0.465
    SingPost has shifted focus to improving profitability through its logistics and e-commerce businesses. Although challenges remain, particularly in its domestic postal business, strong growth from its overseas operations and parcel deliveries offers significant upside. The company’s cost-cutting measures are also expected to improve margins in the coming quarters.


    Venture Corporation – BUY

    Target Price: S$16.17
    Upside: 16.2%
    Last Price: S$13.92
    Venture Corporation remains a key player in the electronics manufacturing space, with strong partnerships across sectors. The company is expected to post solid earnings growth driven by its diversified customer base. Trading at 13.0x PE for 2024E, the stock is seen as undervalued given its potential for margin expansion and robust growth pipeline.

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