Thursday, November 7th, 2024

UBS US Daily Brief: Key Market Insights and Election Impact on Equities for November 6, 2024






Comprehensive Analysis of Key Companies – US Daily Brief

Comprehensive Analysis of Key Companies – US Daily Brief

Broker: UBS Securities LLC

Date: November 6, 2024

Global Equity Strategy

Andrew Garthwaite provides insights on the impact of the recent election on equities. While the detailed opinions are not fully elaborated, the general sentiment is cautious optimism regarding market performance.

The Kroger Co (KR, Neutral, \$58)

Michael Lasser shares highlights from a meeting with Kroger’s management. The key takeaways include strategic initiatives and operational insights that were discussed during the meeting.

US Research – Monthly Research Recap – October 2024

Joseph Parkhill summarizes the key reports published by US UBS Research Analysts in October 2024. This section provides an overview of various ratings changes and price target updates for multiple companies.

Equities

GXO Logistics Inc (GXO, Buy, \$72 from 66)

Thomas Wadewitz highlights new contract wins and easy volume comps, leading to an improved revenue growth outlook for 2025.

International Flavors & Fragrances Inc (IFF, Neutral, \$111 from 108)

Joshua Spector notes a 3Q beat but cautions that the 4Q guide might leave a sour taste for investors.

Portillo’s Inc (PTLO, Neutral, \$14 from 13)

Dennis Geiger discusses traffic pressures and a positive unit growth outlook for Portillo’s Inc.

Ferrari NV (RACE, Buy, \$513 from 478)

Robert Krankowski provides an in-depth analysis, stating that the long-term story remains intact despite a softer-than-expected Q3 results.

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO, Neutral, \$16 from 21)

Mark Carden focuses on the fundamentals, noting a significant price target reduction.

Yum! Brands (YUM, Buy, \$156)

Dennis Geiger provides multiple insights:

  • Despite near-term pressures, long-term growth remains intact.
  • Initial thoughts on 3Q results indicate a positive outlook.

Ingredion Inc (INGR, Buy, \$165 from 158)

Joshua Spector highlights a solid 3Q beat driven by better margin performance.

California Resources Corporation (CRC, Buy, \$68)

Josh Silverstein reviews 3Q24 earnings, noting that the company is executing on multiple fronts.

Devon Energy Corporation (DVN, Neutral, \$47)

Josh Silverstein recaps 3Q24 earnings, mentioning another beat and raise for Devon Energy.

Hess Corporation (HES, Buy, \$173)

Josh Silverstein reviews the 3Q24 performance, highlighting a bottom-line beat and a continued positive outlook.

North American Oil & Gas

Josh Silverstein discusses active rig monitor weekly updates and capital efficiency gains driving rig reduction.

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC, Buy, \$189)

Manav Gupta notes an earnings beat for 3Q24 and provides key takeaways from the earnings call.

Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP, Buy, \$182)

Manav Gupta mentions a beat and raise scenario, with a dividend hike on the horizon, indicating a positive outlook.

MPLX LP (MPLX, Buy, \$51)

Manav Gupta highlights a 3Q24 earnings beat for MPLX.

OGE Energy Corp (OGE, Neutral, \$42)

William Appicelli notes a slight miss for the quarter but maintains a strong load growth outlook.

Apollo Global Management LLC (APO, Neutral, \$150)

Brennan Hawken reports better-than-expected results driven by strong SRE performance.

Franklin Resources (BEN, Neutral, \$21)

Brennan Hawken discusses the challenges faced by Franklin Resources, noting that no easy answers are available.

Assurant, Inc. (AIZ, Buy, \$230)

Brian Meredith highlights a 3Q24 EPS beat driven by Global Housing and raises FY24 guidance.

Intact Financial Corporation (IFC, Neutral, CAD 266)

Brian Meredith notes a 3Q24 EPS beat on stronger-than-expected underwriting results.

AG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc (MITT, Buy, \$8.5)

Doug Harter reports on 3Q earnings, noting that the net interest spread was below expectations.

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR, Neutral, \$9)

Doug Harter highlights 3Q earnings, mentioning that book value was in line with expectations, but October saw a 7% decline.

LoanDepot Inc (LDI, Neutral, \$2.5)

Doug Harter discusses 3Q earnings, noting strong volume and GOS margin leading to profitability.

Palmer Square Capital BDC Inc. (PSBD, Neutral, \$17)

Doug Harter highlights 3Q earnings, mentioning that NII was lower than expected due to higher interest expenses.

U.S. REITs

Michael Goldsmith provides insights into crowded stocks and what the Quant data says about REITs for November 2024.

Exact Sciences Corp (EXAS, Neutral, \$61)

Dan Leonard notes an outsized guide cut, but price increases and other factors support the 2025+ view.

Stevanato Group S.p.A. (STVN, Neutral, \$24 from 23)

Dan Leonard reports an in-line quarter with a cautionary forward view.

Treace Medical Concepts Inc (TMCI, Neutral, \$7)

Danielle Antalffy highlights new product launch momentum as key to 2025 execution.

Syndax Pharmaceuticals Inc (SNDX, Buy, \$37)

David Dai discusses key updates expected in December and a royalty deal that strengthens the company’s cash position.

Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (APLS, Buy, \$74)

Eliana Merle notes a rough quarter but believes this could be a helpful reset for the company.

AdaptHealth Corp (AHCO, Buy, \$12 from 13)

Kevin Caliendo provides multiple insights:

  • Management Q&A and model update.
  • First take on EBITDA performance and other revenue offsets.

Henry Schein Inc (HSIC, Neutral, \$75)

Kevin Caliendo notes a 3Q24 EPS beat with share recapture appearing minimal.

Premier Inc (PINC, Neutral, \$20)

Kevin Caliendo highlights a 1Q25 EPS beat with strong revenue and EBITDA performance.

General Dynamics Corp (GD, Neutral, \$337)

Gavin Parsons notes that G700 deliveries continue at a slow pace.

Builders FirstSource Inc (BLDR, Buy, \$232)

John Lovallo provides key takeaways from the 3Q24 earnings call, mentioning solid execution and an EPS/EBITDA beat.

D.R. Horton Inc (DHI, Buy, \$214)

John Lovallo discusses the FY4Q24 earnings debrief, highlighting positive takeaways.

Sensata Technologies Holding PLC (ST, Buy, \$39 from 44)

Joseph Spak notes operational execution but mentions incremental headwinds.

UL Solutions Inc (ULS, Neutral, \$54 from 52)

Joshua Chan provides an overview of the 3Q performance, highlighting strong growth and margin performance.

AGCO Corp. (AGCO, Neutral, \$104)

Steven Fisher discusses a 3Q miss and cut, mainly on Europe.

Cummins Inc. (CMI, Buy, \$380)

Steven Fisher highlights a beat and raise scenario for 3Q, driven by Power Gen and Medium Duty truck performance.

Conference Call Details

Tuesday, 5th November

  • AdaptHealth Corp – Kevin Caliendo, Buy, PT \$13, \$10.65
  • AGCO – Steven Fisher, Neutral, PT \$104, \$100.42
  • Apellis Pharma – Eliana Merle, Buy, PT \$74, \$26.68
  • Apollo Global – Brennan Hawken, Neutral, PT \$150, \$143.09
  • Archer Daniels Mdlnd – Manav Gupta, Neutral, PT \$64, \$56.56
  • Assurant, Inc. – Brian Meredith, Buy, PT \$230, \$191.77
  • Ballard Power – Manav Gupta, Neutral, PT \$2, \$1.52
  • Builders FirstSource – John Lovallo, Buy, PT \$232, \$180.80
  • California Resources – Josh Silverstein, Buy, PT \$68, \$52.44
  • Cummins Inc. – Steven Fisher, Buy, PT \$380, \$329.17
  • Devon Energy – Josh Silverstein, Neutral, PT \$47, \$39.19
  • DuPont de Nemours In – Joshua Spector, Buy, PT \$104, \$83.30

Wednesday, 6th November

  • Elf Beauty – Peter Grom, Buy, PT \$150, \$110.38
  • Ellington Financial – Doug Harter, Neutral, PT \$12.5, \$12.57
  • Enact Holdings – Doug Harter, Neutral, PT \$35.5, \$34.65
  • Energy Transfer LP – Manav Gupta, Buy, PT \$23, \$16.45
  • Enhabit Inc – AJ Rice, Neutral, PT \$9, \$7.04
  • Enovis Corp – Danielle Antalffy, Buy, PT \$75, \$39.99
  • Fair Isaac – Kevin McVeigh, Neutral, PT \$2100, \$1,999.97
  • Finance of America – Doug Harter, Buy, PT \$14, \$13.45
  • Fortune Brands – John Lovallo, Buy, PT \$98, \$85.49
  • Freshworks Inc – Taylor McGinnis, Buy, PT \$17, \$11.62
  • GFL Environmental – Jon Windham, Buy, PT \$47, \$40.08
  • Gilead Sciences – Eliana Merle, Neutral, PT \$70, \$89.00

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

The report discusses the inherent difficulties in forecasting earnings and corporate financial behavior due to the wide variety of economic, financial, accounting, and regulatory trends, as well as changes in tax policy. It also highlights the risks associated with trading options, structured derivative products, and futures, which are considered appropriate only for sophisticated investors.

Required Disclosures

The report includes a detailed disclaimer about the preparation and distribution of the research by UBS Securities LLC and its affiliates. It emphasizes the importance of managing conflicts of interest and maintaining independence in research products.

Global Wealth Management Disclaimer

The report contains a disclaimer relevant to UBS Global Wealth Management clients, highlighting that the document is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an advertisement, solicitation, or offer to buy or sell any financial instruments.

Credit Suisse Wealth Management Disclaimer

The report includes a disclaimer relevant to Credit Suisse Wealth Management clients, emphasizing the importance of understanding the risks and returns of investments, seeking individualized advice, and adhering to regulatory requirements.


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