Introduction
Airports of Thailand (AOT) operates six of the 38 airports in Thailand, and these six airports account for 83% of the total passenger throughput. The company’s financial and operational performance is crucial for the country’s aviation industry, making it a significant entity in Thailand’s market.
Stock Data
Share Price: Bt60.75
Target Price: Bt70.00
Upside: +15.2%
GICS Sector: Industrials
Bloomberg Ticker: AOT TB
Shares Issued: 14,285.7 million
Market Cap: Bt867,856.3 million (US\$25,130.5 million)
3-Month Avg Daily Turnover: US\$35.2 million
52-Week High/Low: Bt69.25/Bt55.00
Major Shareholders: Finance Ministry (70.0%), Thai NVDR Co Ltd (4.1%)
Company Update
The report maintains a BUY recommendation for AOT with a target price of Bt70.00. This valuation is based on a 2025 EV/EBITDA of 20x, which is 1 standard deviation above its historical pre-COVID-19 trading level. Despite short-term challenges, the long-term outlook remains positive due to solid future project plans and potential increases in passenger service charges.
4QFY24 Earnings Preview
AOT’s 4QFY24 earnings are projected to be relatively stable. The expected net profit is Bt4.65 billion, showing a 29.3% year-on-year increase and a 1.9% quarter-on-quarter increase. Total revenue is expected to be Bt17.0 billion, driven by a consistent year-on-year growth in international passenger volumes, which increased by 20.4% year-on-year in 4QFY24.
The number of international and domestic flights continues to grow year-on-year. In September 2024, there was a slight seasonal decrease in international arrivals, but the total of 8.6 million passengers is still below pre-pandemic levels due to global supply chain issues affecting flight recovery.
Key Financials
| Year to 30 Sep (Btm) |
2022 |
2023 |
2024F |
2025F |
2026F |
| Net Turnover |
16,560 |
48,141 |
66,623 |
73,964 |
82,731 |
| EBITDA |
684 |
26,100 |
42,972 |
50,666 |
56,687 |
| Operating Profit |
(8,248) |
17,230 |
31,954 |
39,154 |
45,688 |
| Net Profit (Reported) |
(11,088) |
8,791 |
20,471 |
26,426 |
31,347 |
| EPS (Bt) |
(0.8) |
0.6 |
1.4 |
1.8 |
2.2 |
Operational Statistics
The momentum of passenger arrivals is a concern, especially with a recent month-on-month drop in international tourist arrivals in September 2024. This decline is attributed to flooding in Northern provinces and Phuket. The Golden Week in October 2024 saw disappointing numbers of Chinese tourists, and the lack of continued tourism stimulus policies from the government further impacts the outlook.
The new Master Plan for Bangkok (BKK) is expected to be unveiled by the end of the year. The South Terminal and Runway 4 are crucial parts of the development plan. The South Terminal, expected to commence operations in 2031, will handle 60-70 million passengers per annum, comparable to the main terminal at BKK.
Valuation and Recommendation
Despite the short-term gloomy outlook, the report maintains a BUY recommendation for AOT with a target price of Bt70.00. The valuation is based on 2025 EV/EBITDA of 20x, which is 1 standard deviation above its historical pre-COVID-19 trading level. The positive outlook is supported by solid future project plans and potential increases in passenger service charges.
Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG)
Environmental
AOT focuses on increasing energy consumption efficiency by designing, constructing, and operating airports to maximize resource utilization.
Social
The company has established an Aerodrome Safety Policy to enhance safety management and operational standards. It also provides safety training to ensure compliance with the policy.
Governance
The board operates under corporate governance principles and relevant laws, regulations, and guidelines recommended by the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Securities and Exchange Commission.
