Grab Holdings (GRAB US)

Recommendation: Buy

Following a muted 2Q24, Grab made a solid comeback in 3Q24 with an across-the-board improvement, beating estimates by 1-36% across key metrics. Grab’s scale and supportive growth factors, such as healthy spending across digital platforms and tourism growth, as well as support from new verticals like lending, Grab Mart, and restaurant reservation, should help sustain momentum in 4Q and 2025. Competition remains under check, allowing for incentive optimization.

Management noted that the strong momentum in 3Q continued in October and early November, with tourism arrivals remaining strong. The flywheel effect in its deliveries arm should increase with restaurant reservation services, allowing higher margin advertising revenue growth. Gojek’s exit from Vietnam and relatively muted competition from Foodpanda and TikTok reflect a rational competitive environment, enabling incentive optimization.

Grab rolled out lending products through its Digibank arms in MY and ID in 4Q, setting its fintech arm up for revenue acceleration in 4Q/2025 while costs should come down. Although USD strength vs. ASEAN currencies weighed on 9M24 results, this is expected to normalize in 4Q24.

Capital-management initiatives are on the horizon, with Grab’s net cash position estimated at USD4.7 billion and the company turning FCF positive starting 2Q24. The company is in a comfortable position to start returning cash, with an estimated forward dividend yield of 2-3% starting 2025.

In 3Q24, GMV grew 15% YoY/5% QoQ, 2% ahead of expectations. Revenue for 2024 is projected to grow by 17-18% YoY while group Adjusted EBITDA guidance is raised to USD308-313 million from USD250-270 million.

Grab’s structural growth drivers are in place in an underpenetrated ASEAN market, with leadership positions in all the markets it operates in. Despite mild growth headwinds and monetization pausing concerns, Grab’s ecosystem benefits within the financial services segment and potential easing of monetary policy by the US Fed are positive swing factors.

Key metrics include revenue growth from USD1,432 million in FY22 to an estimated USD3,899 million in FY26, with EBITDA expected to turn positive, growing from USD48.8 million in FY24 to USD671.4 million in FY26.

Zomato (ZOMATO IN)

Recommendation: Not Rated

Zomato’s market capitalization stands at USD26,986 million, with a projected revenue growth rate of 45% for FY1, and a weighted average EV/GMV of 1.0x. The company has shown robust growth metrics, with a 3-year CAGR of 46% in sales and an EV/EBITDA of 24.4x for FY1. However, the stock is not rated by Maybank Research.

Doordash (DASH US)

Recommendation: Not Rated

Doordash has a market capitalization of USD71,999 million and is projected to grow its revenues by 16% in FY1. The company has an EV/Sales multiple of 5.9x for FY1 and an EV/EBITDA of 37.2x. Given its significant market presence, Doordash’s growth trajectory remains strong, although it is not rated by Maybank Research.

Uber (UBER US)

Recommendation: Not Rated

Uber, with a market capitalization of USD150,874 million, is expected to grow its revenues by 16% in FY1. The company has an EV/Sales multiple of 6.0x for FY1 and an EV/EBITDA of 21.7x. Uber’s global footprint and strong growth metrics make it a significant player in the on-demand services sector, though it is not rated by Maybank Research.

Delivery Hero (DHER GR)

Recommendation: Not Rated

Delivery Hero has a market capitalization of USD11,677 million and is projected to grow its revenues by 8% for FY1. The company has an EV/Sales multiple of 4.0x for FY1 and an EV/EBITDA of 8.9x. Despite its extensive operations in the food delivery sector, Delivery Hero is not rated by Maybank Research.

Didi (DIDIY US)

Recommendation: Not Rated

Didi, with a market capitalization of USD23,339 million, is not rated by Maybank Research. The company lacks available growth metrics but maintains its position as a leading ride-hailing service provider in China.

Meituan (3690 HK)

Recommendation: Not Rated

Meituan has a market capitalization of USD137,451 million and is projected to grow its revenues by 12% in FY1. The company has an EV/Sales multiple of 3.7x for FY1 and an EV/EBITDA of 16.2x. Meituan’s broad service offerings and strong market position make it a key player in the on-demand services sector, though it is not rated by Maybank Research.

Just Eat (TKWY NA)

Recommendation: Not Rated

Just Eat has a market capitalization of USD2,516 million and is projected to grow its revenues by 2% in FY1. The company has an EV/Sales multiple of 5.8x for FY1 and an EV/EBITDA of 18.6x. Despite its established presence in the food delivery market, Just Eat is not rated by Maybank Research.

Lyft (LYFT US)

Recommendation: Not Rated

Lyft, with a market capitalization of USD7,711 million, is expected to grow its revenues by 15% in FY1. The company has an EV/Sales multiple of 2.8x for FY1 and an EV/EBITDA of 5.9x. Lyft continues to be a major player in the ride-hailing industry, although it is not rated by Maybank Research.

Deliveroo (ROO LN)

Recommendation: Not Rated

Deliveroo has a market capitalization of USD2,875 million and is projected to grow its revenues by 8% for FY1. The company has an EV/Sales multiple of 3.0x for FY1 and an EV/EBITDA of 11.3x. Deliveroo’s growth in the food delivery sector is noteworthy, but it is not rated by Maybank Research.