Asia Pacific Retail Research Insights

Broker: CGS | Date: November 18, 2024

Mermaid Maritime: Awaiting Key Order Wins

Mermaid Maritime’s third-quarter 2024 revenue witnessed a slight decline quarter-on-quarter due to the completion of decommissioning contracts in the UK and Thailand. This was partially offset by stronger cable-laying activities. The fiscal year 2024 forecast through 2026 maintains gross margin estimates, but revenue forecasts are reduced based on lower fleet utilization and decommissioning order assumptions. Excluding a forex loss of US\$2.7 million, the net profit aligns with the expected US\$3.8 million. An improvement in the share of SG&A was noted as a positive surprise. The recommendation remains an “Add,” with a lower target price of S\$0.16 due to reduced net profit expectations. The key catalyst for future growth is the announcement of new order wins.

Tencent: Game Revenue Outlook

Tencent’s game revenue is projected to remain robust in the fourth quarter of 2024. The detailed analysis of Tencent’s performance and market position was not provided in the document, but the company appears to be strategically positioned for continued strength in its gaming segment.

CSE Global: Clean Project Execution is Key

The document briefly mentions “CSE Global” without offering a detailed analysis. However, it emphasizes the importance of clean project execution as a critical factor for the company’s ongoing success and strategic operations.

Frasers Property Limited: Improved Performance

Frasers Property Limited is noted for better operating performance in the second half of fiscal year 2024. Details on this improvement were not extensively covered, but the company seems to be on a positive trajectory based on performance metrics.

Hang Seng Index: Technical Insights

The Hang Seng Index (HSI) confirmed a bearish flag and continued a corrective move downwards. The index is trending below the 20,000 psychological level, with expectations to test the key support zone between 19,000 and 17,990. Despite the current bearish sentiment, long-term prospects remain bullish, with targets set at 26,179 and 30,257. Technical indicators, including the Stochastic Oscillator and the 23-period Rate of Change (ROC), support this short-term bearish outlook.

CSI 300 Index: Forming a Potential 3-Wave Structure

The CSI 300 Index continues its corrective downside as anticipated and is likely to move towards the 3,700 or lower support zone at 3,510-3,400. Technical indicators indicate short-term bearish corrections but suggest long-term upside potential. The MACD continues to show strong bullish momentum, indicating a long-term bullish sentiment with a potential 3-wave corrective structure forming.

MSCI Singapore Index: Bullish Upside Resumes

The MSCI Singapore Index has surpassed the target of 360.00, aiming for higher targets of 372.00 and 379.00. The long-term MACD shows strong bullish momentum, supported by the 23-period ROC indicating a bullish rebound. The corrective bearish bar is small, suggesting minimal selling pressure, and the index is poised for continued growth.

SET Index (Thailand): Bearish Reversal

The SET Index is likely to decline further, having formed a potential head and shoulders bearish reversal pattern. The correction is expected to test the 1,400 psychological support or the 1,372 level. Despite this short-term bearish outlook, the long-term trend remains bullish with targets at 1,521 and 1,544.

Jakarta Composite Index: Strong Bearish Trend

The Jakarta Composite Index continues to slide, with downside momentum expected to test the major support at 7,050. The Ichimoku indicator presents a clear three bearish death cross signal, and the MACD confirms a negative crossover, indicating strong bearish pressure.

Nikkei 225 Index: Bearish Pressure Continues

The Nikkei 225 Index remains weak, with short-term predictions leaning towards further decline to the 37,750 level. The larger trend may be shifting towards a more significant bearish trend, with a potential diamond top formation. The index is expected to range between 36,600 and 40,000, with the possibility of testing lower supports at 34,000 or 32,200.

Dow Jones Industrial Average: Short-lived Correction

The Dow Jones Industrial Average neared the target of 44,550 before a short-lived correction. A rebound is likely, targeting 44,100. The index might form a 3-wave corrective structure, with key support between 42,000-42,600. The overall long-term trend remains bullish, supported by strong Ichimoku indicators and a 14-period DMI confirming bullish strength.

S&P 500 Index: Heavy Retracement

The S&P 500 Index experienced consolidation after a strong post-election run. Resistance remains firm, with the index testing supports near prior all-time highs. The RSI holds near 50.00, and a break could indicate short-term weakness, while holding support may suggest a higher low and potential upside continuation.

S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX): Bullish Signs Amidst Fear

The VIX held within the bullish zone but spiked towards the “no-go” zone near 17.00. Further upside in VIX could signal potential volatility and short-term downside for the S&P 500, while remaining below 17.00 indicates resilience.

Nasdaq Composite: Building on Upside

The Nasdaq Composite faced weakness, moving towards prior all-time highs. The RSI moved lower, testing 50.00. Holding support 1 may lead to upside resumption, while a break points towards further downside. Upcoming Nvidia earnings could be a significant factor.

Russell 2000: Setting a Higher Low

The Russell 2000 showed weakness, moving towards gap support. Holding this support suggests potential upside continuation, while a break below could lead to further downside. The RSI moves towards 50.00, indicating potential for continued trend analysis.