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China’s 2025 Outlook: Navigating De-risking, De-coupling, and Market Volatility






UOB Kay Hian’s Comprehensive Stock Analysis – December 4, 2024

UOB Kay Hian’s Comprehensive Stock Analysis

Dated: December 4, 2024

Introduction

In a detailed analysis by UOB Kay Hian, the market strategy for Greater China in 2025 is laid out with a focus on de-risking and decoupling. As the US and China navigate trade relations, increased market volatility is anticipated. This report delves into stock picks and strategic allocations, providing an insightful look at various sectors and individual companies.

Market Strategy Overview

The 2025 outlook anticipates a challenging first half with the US imposing higher tariffs. China’s response is expected to include growth-supportive measures. The MSCI China Index target is set at 68pt, with an emphasis on domestic orientation and policy beneficiaries.

Key Stock Picks and Analysis

Tencent Holdings Limited (700 HK)

Tencent is a leading player in the communication services sector. With a current price of 395.20 HKD, the target is set at 570.00 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 44.2%. The projected PE ratios for 2025 and 2026 are 15.3x and 13.5x, respectively, with a dividend yield of 1.5% in 2025. Tencent remains a robust choice due to its strong market presence and growth potential.

Desay SV Automotive (002920 CH)

Desay SV, positioned in the consumer discretionary sector, is poised for significant growth. Trading at 127.80 CNY, the company has a target price of 190.00 CNY, offering a 48.7% upside. With PE ratios of 26.8x for 2025 and 20.2x for 2026, and a dividend yield of 1.0%, Desay SV is a compelling investment with promising returns.

Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co., Ltd. (3606 HK)

Operating in the consumer discretionary sector, Fuyao Glass is currently priced at 51.65 HKD with a target of 68.00 HKD, reflecting a 31.7% upside. The PE ratio stands at 14.2x for 2025 and 12.7x for 2026, with a notable dividend yield of 3.9%. Fuyao Glass is a strong pick due to its stable growth trajectory.

Geely Automobile Holdings Limited (175 HK)

Geely, another key player in consumer discretionary, is valued at 13.00 HKD with a target of 23.00 HKD, offering a substantial upside of 76.9%. The PE ratios are forecasted at 11.5x for 2025 and 9.4x for 2026, along with a dividend yield of 2.8%. This makes Geely an attractive investment option.

Haier Smart Home Co., Ltd. (6690 HK)

Haier Smart Home, trading at 26.10 HKD, targets 42.00 HKD, suggesting a 60.9% upside. With PE ratios of 10.0x for 2025 and 8.7x for 2026 and a dividend yield of 4.3%, the company presents a strong case for investment in the consumer discretionary sector.

Meituan (3690 HK)

In the consumer discretionary space, Meituan is priced at 162.00 HKD with a target of 222.00 HKD, providing a 37.0% upside. The PE ratios are 16.6x for 2025 and 12.1x for 2026, with no dividend yield. Meituan is poised for growth with its innovative approach in the market.

Mengniu Dairy Company Limited (2319 HK)

Mengniu Dairy, a consumer staples company, is valued at 16.58 HKD with a target price of 23.50 HKD, offering a 41.7% upside. With PE ratios of 11.2x for 2025 and 9.8x for 2026, and a dividend yield of 4.3%, Mengniu Dairy is a solid investment with consistent returns.

Sands China Ltd. (1928 HK)

Sands China in the consumer discretionary sector is priced at 18.70 HKD, targeting 28.60 HKD, which translates to a 52.9% upside. The PE ratios are 13.4x for 2025 and 10.6x for 2026, with a dividend yield of 3.0%. Sands China is a promising choice given its market position.

Trip.com Group Limited (9961 HK)

Trip.com, focused on consumer discretionary, has a current price of 501.50 HKD with a target of 640.00 HKD, indicating a 27.6% upside. The PE ratios are projected at 20.7x for 2025 and 18.7x for 2026, with no dividend yield. Trip.com is set to capitalize on the growing travel sector.

Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China, Ltd. (2318 HK)

In the financials sector, Ping An is priced at 44.30 HKD with a target of 69.00 HKD, offering a 55.8% upside. The PE ratio is a low 6.0x for both 2025 and 2026, with a dividend yield of 5.2%. Ping An’s strong financial standing makes it an attractive investment.

Ali Health (241 HK)

Ali Health, part of the healthcare sector, is currently at 3.52 HKD with a target of 5.00 HKD, suggesting a 42.0% upside. PE ratios are 26.0x for 2025 and 19.3x for 2026, with no dividend yield. Ali Health is a dynamic player with significant growth potential.

China State Construction Engineering Corporation (601668 CH)

This industrial company is trading at 5.89 CNY, targeting 6.61 CNY, presenting a 12.2% upside. The PE ratios are 4.4x for 2025 and 3.9x for 2026, with a high dividend yield of 4.9%. CSCEC is a stable investment in the industrial sector.

Han’s Laser Technology Industry Group Co., Ltd. (002008 CH)

Han’s Laser, in the industrials sector, is at 25.71 CNY, with a target of 34.00 CNY, indicating a 32.2% upside. The PE ratios are 20.1x for 2025 and 16.9x for 2026, with a dividend yield of 0.8%. Han’s Laser is poised for growth with its technological advancements.

JD Logistics, Inc. (2618 HK)

JD Logistics, part of the industrials sector, is valued at 14.20 HKD, targeting 22.00 HKD, offering a 54.9% upside. The PE ratios stand at 11.8x for 2025 and 10.9x for 2026, with no dividend yield. JD Logistics is a key player in the logistics industry with strong growth prospects.

Xiaomi Corporation (1810 HK)

In the information technology sector, Xiaomi is priced at 28.40 HKD, with a target of 33.50 HKD, representing an 18.0% upside. The PE ratios are 22.3x for 2025 and 18.4x for 2026, with no dividend yield. Xiaomi’s innovative products make it a compelling investment.

Zijin Mining Group Company Limited (2899 HK)

Zijin Mining, a materials sector company, is trading at 14.96 HKD with a target of 21.20 HKD, offering a 41.7% upside. The PE ratios are 9.5x for 2025 and 8.9x for 2026, with a dividend yield of 2.8%. Zijin Mining is a strong player in the mining industry.

China Overseas Land & Investment Limited (688 HK)

In real estate, COLI is valued at 13.12 HKD, with a target of 18.60 HKD, suggesting a 41.8% upside. The PE ratios are 6.9x for 2025 and 6.6x for 2026, with a dividend yield of 5.0%. COLI is a reliable choice in the real estate market.

Conclusion

UOB Kay Hian’s comprehensive analysis provides a detailed outlook on the Greater China market for 2025. With strategic stock picks and sector allocations, investors are well-equipped to navigate the anticipated market volatility. The focus on domestic-oriented stocks and policy beneficiaries offers a robust investment strategy.


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