Overview of China’s Trade Performance

In November 2024, China’s trade performance revealed a notable moderation in exports with a year-on-year (yoy) growth of 6.7%, amounting to USD 312.3 billion. This was driven by weakened demand from major markets such as the EU, Hong Kong, and ASEAN. Imports saw a contraction of 3.9% yoy, reaching USD 214.9 billion, although key commodities showed slight improvement, except for iron ore. This resulted in a trade surplus widening from USD 95.7 billion to USD 97.4 billion month-on-month (mom).

Exports: A Detailed Examination

November’s export growth of 6.7% yoy was a slowdown from October’s 12.7% yoy, and it fell short of Bloomberg’s consensus forecast of 8.7% yoy. A closer look reveals that exports to all key markets experienced a decline in growth rates. Notably, the EU saw a drop to 7.2% yoy from 12.7% yoy, Hong Kong declined to -2.7% yoy from 2.1% yoy, and ASEAN showed a slight deceleration to 14.9% yoy from 15.8% yoy. This general deceleration aligns with the weakening manufacturing PMI new export orders, reflecting a global manufacturing downcycle.

Imports: Analyzing Trends and Recovery

Import growth deteriorated to -3.9% yoy in November, a deeper decline from the -2.3% yoy in October, contrary to Bloomberg’s expectations of a 0.9% yoy rebound. Despite this, certain key commodities showed recovery. Notably, coal imports rebounded to -3.9% yoy, an increase of 5.7 percentage points (ppt), copper ore imports grew by 3.4% yoy (+0.6ppt), and crude oil improved to -10.5% yoy (+1.4ppt). The halt in the decline of commodity import growth suggests potential stabilization in domestic demand.

Trade Across Key Products

The month also saw a broad decline in trade across all key products. Agricultural imports fell significantly by 15.1% yoy, motor vehicle exports dropped by 8.6% yoy, and imports of integrated circuits slowed to a growth of 3.7% yoy. Hi-tech product exports grew by 6.4% yoy, and mechanical and electrical products saw a growth of 7.9% yoy, albeit at a slower pace. The dip in auto exports, a critical Chinese export, warrants close monitoring in the coming months.

Exports and Imports Data Breakdown

Key Market Details

Exports to the US were valued at USD 47.3 billion with a yoy growth of 8.0%. The EU saw exports of USD 41.1 billion, Japan USD 14.1 billion, and ASEAN USD 53.7 billion, each reflecting varied yoy growth. Analyzing imports of key commodities, iron ore imports stood at USD 9.7 billion, crude oil at USD 26.3 billion, copper ore at USD 5.4 billion, and coal at USD 5.0 billion.

Conclusion

Overall, China’s trade outlook for November 2024 indicates a slowdown in export growth and a continued decline in import growth, albeit with signs of stabilization in key commodities. The dip in auto exports is a significant concern, necessitating careful observation in the forthcoming months. These trends underscore the ongoing challenges within the global manufacturing sector and the potential for recovery in domestic demand.