Company-Specific Deep Dives
Kasikorn Bank (KBANK): A Strong Buy
Current Price: Bt156.00
Target Price: Bt190.00
Upside: 21.8%
KBANK is positioned to deliver robust performance, with a forecasted net profit of Bt49.1 billion in 2024, up 15.7% yoy. Q4 2024 net profit is expected to dip 8.5% qoq but grow 16.7% yoy to Bt10.95 billion. The bank’s pre-provision operating profit for Q4 2024 is projected at Bt25.83 billion, a slight 5% qoq decline but indicative of a stable operational performance. Its net interest margin (NIM) stands at 3.7%, reflecting a minor contraction of 8 basis points qoq. Credit costs are expected to decline by 15 bp qoq, supporting profitability. KBANK’s focus on improving asset quality and reducing credit costs contributes to its bullish outlook.
Krungthai Bank (KTB): Consistent Growth
Current Price: Bt21.10
Target Price: Bt25.50
Upside: 20.9%
KTB is forecasted to post a net profit of Bt44.4 billion in 2024, a 21.2% yoy increase. For Q4 2024, net profit is expected to remain stable qoq at Bt11 billion, with an impressive 80.2% yoy growth. The bank’s pre-provision operating profit is forecasted to decline 14.9% qoq to Bt19.89 billion, reflecting seasonal capex hikes. Its NIM is projected at 3.3%, with a slight contraction of 6 basis points qoq. KTB’s credit costs are forecasted to drop significantly by 50 bp qoq, signaling improvements in asset quality. The bank’s diversified loan exposure across retail, SME, and corporate segments highlights its resilience.
SCB X (SCB): A Slight Dip but Long-Term Potential
Current Price: Bt117.00
Target Price: Bt138.00
Upside: 17.9%
SCB’s Q4 2024 net profit is expected at Bt10.45 billion, a 4.5% qoq decline and 5% yoy decrease. Despite this, the bank is forecasted to achieve a net profit of Bt42.68 billion in 2024, down slightly by 1.9% yoy. Its pre-provision operating profit remains stable at Bt24.85 billion for Q4 2024. SCB’s NIM is projected at 4%, a minor qoq contraction of 9 basis points. The bank’s credit costs are expected to rise by 9 basis points qoq, reflecting its focus on high-yield loans. SCB’s long-term strategy includes improving asset quality and leveraging technological investments, positioning it for future growth.
Bangkok Bank (BBL): Stable but Conservative
Current Price: Bt150.50
Target Price: Bt170.00
Upside: 13.0%
BBL is expected to achieve a net profit of Bt45.5 billion in 2024, a 9.2% yoy increase. For Q4 2024, net profit is forecasted at Bt10.67 billion, a 14.5% qoq decline but a 20.4% yoy growth. Its pre-provision operating profit is projected to drop 19.3% qoq to Bt19.35 billion. The bank’s NIM is expected at 3%, showing a slight contraction of 3 basis points qoq. Credit costs are forecasted to decline by 37 basis points qoq, reflecting its focus on maintaining a conservative risk profile. BBL’s loan book remains heavily skewed towards corporate lending, accounting for 46% of its portfolio.
Tisco Financial Group (TISCO): High Margins with Limited Growth
Current Price: Bt98.50
Target Price: Bt98.00
Upside: -0.5%
TISCO is expected to post a net profit of Bt6.91 billion in 2024, down 5.3% yoy. Q4 2024 net profit is forecasted to remain flat at Bt1.72 billion, with a slight qoq increase of 0.3% but a 3.5% yoy decline. Its pre-provision operating profit is projected at Bt2.56 billion for the quarter, up 2.7% qoq. TISCO boasts the highest NIM in the sector at 5%, reflecting its focus on high-yield loans. However, credit costs are expected to rise by 11 basis points qoq, driven by its high exposure to retail lending. TISCO’s cautious approach to growth is reflected in its limited upside potential.
TMBThanachart Bank (TTB): Modest Growth Prospects
Current Price: Bt1.84
Target Price: Bt2.16
Upside: 17.4%
TTB is forecasted to achieve a net profit of Bt21.16 billion in 2024, a 14.6% yoy increase. For Q4 2024, net profit is expected to remain stable qoq at Bt5.25 billion, with a 7.8% yoy growth. Its pre-provision operating profit is projected to decline 3.9% qoq to Bt9.54 billion. TTB’s NIM is forecasted at 3.3%, with a slight qoq improvement of 1 basis point. Credit costs are expected to decrease by 11 basis points qoq, highlighting its focus on improving asset quality. TTB’s retail-focused loan book accounts for 62% of its portfolio, supporting its growth prospects.
Kiatnakin Phatra Bank (KKP): High Exposure to Risky Segments
Current Price: Bt52.25
Target Price: Bt56.00
Upside: 7.2%
KKP is forecasted to post a net profit of Bt4.59 billion in 2024, a significant 15.6% yoy decline. For Q4 2024, net profit is expected to drop sharply by 22.3% qoq to Bt1.01 billion, despite a 51.3% yoy growth. The bank’s pre-provision operating profit is projected to rise 13.8% qoq to Bt2.59 billion. KKP’s NIM is forecasted at 4.2%, with a slight qoq improvement of 9 basis points. However, its credit costs are expected to rise by 73 basis points qoq, reflecting its high exposure to high-yield loans and volatile segments like used vehicle financing. KKP’s outlook remains challenging due to uneven recovery in asset quality.
