Overview of ASEAN Internet Companies

The ASEAN internet sector continues to thrive, driven by robust growth in fintech, e-commerce, and on-demand services. Maybank Research provides a detailed analysis of three leading players—Grab, Sea, and GoTo. The report highlights their financial performance, growth strategies, and market outlook for 2025 and beyond.

Grab Holdings: Steady Growth with Fintech Boost

Performance and Growth Outlook

Grab remains a key player in the ASEAN on-demand services market. The company is projected to achieve a 20% revenue growth in 2025, with adjusted EBITDA expected to grow by an impressive 87%. Grab is also forecasted to post its maiden net profit after tax (NPAT) of USD 277 million in 2025.

Mobility Segment

Grab’s mobility GMV is expected to grow by 19%, supported by stable competition and strong tourism flows. While new entrants like Xanh SM may pose risks, their impact in 2025 is likely to be limited as they scale up operations. A potential Grab-Gojek merger remains a topic of investor interest, which could result in a dominant 80-90% market share in Indonesia.

Delivery Segment

The deliveries segment is poised for a 13% GMV growth, driven by the post-COVID normalization of food delivery and faster growth in non-food categories like groceries (Grab Mart) and local services. Grab Mart’s GMV grew 1.7 times faster than food delivery in 2024, signaling strong momentum.

Financial Services Segment

Grabfin is expected to see a 53% revenue growth in 2025, with loans outstanding projected to grow by 65%. The launch of digibank lending in Malaysia and Indonesia will be a significant driver, particularly in Indonesia, where underbanked and unbanked populations remain high. Partnerships with KakaoBank and Emtek Group are expected to bolster Grab’s fintech capabilities.

Valuation and Recommendation

The report maintains a “Buy” rating on Grab with a target price of USD 6.24, reflecting optimism about its fintech growth and overall financial performance.

Sea Group: Sustained Momentum Across Key Segments

Performance and Growth Outlook

Sea Group is positioned as a leader in ASEAN’s internet economy, with projected revenue growth of 28% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 45% in 2025. The company’s diverse portfolio spans e-commerce, digital entertainment, and financial services, all of which are expected to contribute to its robust performance.

E-commerce Segment

Shopee, Sea’s e-commerce platform, is expected to achieve a 21% GMV growth in 2025. Revenue growth is projected at 28%, driven by increased seller take-rates and advertising penetration. The ASEAN market offers ample room for growth, with e-commerce penetration still in the mid-teens. However, macroeconomic challenges and currency depreciation in Brazil could offset some gains.

Digital Entertainment Segment

Garena, Sea’s gaming arm, is likely to experience slower growth in 2025. Free Fire is projected to see a 5% increase in subscribers, with bookings growing at 6%. New game launches like Need for Speed and Delta Force are expected to contribute to revenue.

Financial Services Segment

Sea’s digital financial services (DFS) are set to grow at 30% in 2025, driven by BNPL and credit offerings. The company is leveraging its Shopee ecosystem to deepen penetration in both consumer and SME lending. While risks of non-performing loans (NPLs) exist, Sea’s data-driven credit scoring models provide a competitive edge.

Valuation and Recommendation

Maybank Research maintains a “Buy” rating on Sea with a target price of USD 130. The company’s strong e-commerce and fintech growth, coupled with its ability to navigate macroeconomic challenges, make it a top pick in the ASEAN internet space.

GoTo: Integrated Growth with a Fintech Focus

Performance and Growth Outlook

GoTo has made significant strides in its journey toward profitability. The company’s adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to IDR 72 billion in 2024, and it is on track to achieve break-even profitability by the end of the year. Revenue for 2025 is projected at IDR 17.3 trillion, with fintech contributing 29% of total revenue.

On-Demand Services Segment

GoTo’s on-demand services (ODS) segment is a duopoly, with the company solidifying its position alongside Grab Indonesia. The entry of Xanh SM in Indonesia is not seen as a major threat, given its focus on the taxi business and limited fleet size.

E-commerce Segment

Competition in e-commerce remains intense, with international players like Temu aggressively expanding. However, obtaining operational permits in Indonesia could be a challenge for new entrants. GoTo’s localized approach positions it well to navigate this competitive landscape.

Fintech Segment

Fintech is emerging as a key growth driver for GoTo. The company aims to double its lending growth by 2025, leveraging Indonesia’s large population and low household debt levels. The lending business is expected to account for a significant portion of revenue, reflecting strong consumer demand.

Valuation and Recommendation

Maybank Research maintains a “Buy” rating on GoTo, citing its integrated business model and strong growth potential in fintech and on-demand services.

Conclusion

The ASEAN internet sector is poised for robust growth in 2025, with Grab, Sea, and GoTo leading the charge. Each company has unique strengths and strategies that position them well in their respective markets. Maybank Research’s positive outlook on these companies underscores their potential to deliver strong financial performance and shareholder value in the coming years.