Land and Houses Public Company Limited: Comprehensive 2025 Analysis
Overview: Navigating Challenges in 2025
Land and Houses Public Company Limited (LH), a leading property developer in Thailand, has announced cautious plans for 2025. The company focuses on residential projects, including single detached houses, townhouses, and condominiums. It also generates rental income from serviced apartments and rental properties. Despite its optimistic stance, LH faces significant challenges due to intensifying competition in the low-rise segment and a conservative project launch strategy.
Stock Recommendation and Target Price
The broker has maintained a HOLD recommendation for LH’s stock with a revised target price of Bt5.40, reflecting a 10.2% upside from its current price of Bt4.90. This is a reduction from the previous target price of Bt6.00 due to a cautious outlook for the upcoming years.
2025 Business Plan: Conservative Approach Amid Headwinds
LH has adopted a cautious approach for 2025, with plans to launch only four low-rise residential projects worth Bt11.2 billion. This marks a 64% year-on-year drop from the 13 projects worth Bt30.9 billion launched in 2024. The company will primarily focus on the high-end to luxury segment, targeting high-income customers with an average unit price of Bt23.8 million. Approximately 80% of these projects will be launched during the first half of 2025, with an expected take-up rate of 20% or about Bt2.2 billion in sales.
Key Targets: Growth Amid Challenges
LH has set ambitious targets for 2025, aiming for double-digit growth in both presales and transfers:
- Presales: Targeted at Bt23 billion, up 23% year-on-year. This includes Bt19.2 billion (+25% year-on-year) from low-rise projects and Bt3.8 billion (+11% year-on-year) from high-rise projects.
- Transfers: Expected to grow to Bt20 billion, marking a double-digit increase.
The low-rise segment’s growth is anticipated to stem from projects launched in 2024 and those planned for 2025. For the high-rise segment, key contributions are expected from condominium projects like Wan Vayla Na Chao Phraya. However, achieving these targets will be challenging due to intense competition in the market.
Rental Income and Divestment Plans
Rental revenue is expected to grow slightly by 2.6% in 2025. Although LH divested Terminal Pattaya in the fourth quarter of 2024, the impact on rental income will be offset by the launch of the Grande Centre Point Lumphini hotel in the second quarter of 2025, which is expected to achieve a 70% occupancy rate. Additionally, LH plans to divest its U.S. assets, including three apartment complexes—Parc, Yard, and Revere—with a total investment value of US\$381 million. At least one property is expected to be sold in the first half of 2025, but the gains from these divestments are anticipated to be lower than the Bt2 billion gain booked in 2024.
2024 Fourth-Quarter Earnings Outlook
LH’s net profit for the fourth quarter of 2024 is projected to be approximately Bt2.5 billion, showing a year-on-year decline but a quarter-on-quarter improvement. This performance will be underpinned by a pre-tax gain of about Bt2 billion from the divestment of Terminal 21 Pattaya.
Financial Performance and Forecasts
| Year |
Net Turnover (Bt billion) |
EBITDA (Bt billion) |
Net Profit (Bt billion) |
Dividend Yield (%) |
| 2023 |
26.7 |
5.3 |
7.5 |
10.2 |
| 2024F |
25.0 |
4.0 |
5.4 |
6.4 |
| 2025F |
26.4 |
4.9 |
4.8 |
6.2 |
| 2026F |
28.3 |
5.7 |
5.5 |
7.5 |
Key financial metrics reveal a challenging outlook, with net profit for 2025 being revised down by 8-11% due to lower presale and transfer assumptions. The company also faces risks such as tightening bank policies and slower-than-expected economic recovery.
Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Initiatives
LH has demonstrated a commitment to ESG principles:
- Environmental: Reduced greenhouse gas emissions by 15.52 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent through energy-saving tools, renewable energy, and electric scooters.
- Social: Focused on improving quality of life for stakeholders, including employee safety supervision and charity projects for patients in need.
- Governance: Partnered with the Thai private sector to combat corruption and enhanced supply chain risk management.
Valuation and Final Recommendation
The stock’s valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) method, attributing Bt0.80/share to the core business (based on a 13x 2025F price-to-earnings ratio) and Bt4.60/share to affiliated companies and investments. While LH has prioritized inventory reduction and liquidity control, achieving its ambitious targets remains a challenge. The broker maintains a HOLD recommendation with a target price of Bt5.40.
