Comprehensive Analysis of Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS)
Broker Name: UOB Kay Hian
Date of Report: Friday, 31 January 2025
Introduction
Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS), a leading name in private healthcare, has been under the spotlight for its consistent growth and robust expansion strategies. With a wide network of hospitals catering to both local and international patients, BDMS is strategically positioned to leverage new greenfield projects, mergers and acquisitions, and digital healthcare services as key long-term growth drivers. UOB Kay Hian’s latest report provides an in-depth analysis of BDMS’s performance, projection, and market potential.
Stock Overview
- Share Price: Bt23.90
- Target Price: Bt33.00
- Upside: +38.1%
- Market Capitalization: Bt379.8 billion (US\$11.2 billion)
- Major Shareholders:
- Prasarttong-osoth Family: 18.0%
- Thai NVDR: 13.7%
- Bangkok Airways: 5.2%
4Q24 Earnings Preview
BDMS is expected to report a net profit of Bt4.1 billion in 4Q24, reflecting a 4.8% year-on-year (yoy) growth but a 2.5% decline quarter-on-quarter (qoq). Revenue is forecast at Bt27.6 billion, showcasing a 4.8% yoy increase. This growth is attributed to steady contributions from Thai patients and a significant boost from international patients, particularly from China and the Middle East.
Key Financial Metrics
| Metric |
4Q23 |
3Q24 |
4Q24F |
YoY (%) |
QoQ (%) |
| Sales (Btm) |
26,345 |
28,151 |
27,616 |
+5% |
-2% |
| Gross Profit (Btm) |
9,956 |
10,517 |
10,436 |
+5% |
-1% |
| Net Profit (Btm) |
3,952 |
4,246 |
4,141 |
+5% |
-2% |
| EBITDA Margin |
25.3% |
25.4% |
25.1% |
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Operational Performance
Despite slower growth from Thai patients, BDMS has benefited from robust international patient volumes, driven by Chinese and Middle Eastern markets. The reduction in the Adjusted Relative Weight (AdjRW) rate for 2H24 is projected to have minimal impact, costing approximately Bt10 million in 4Q24.
Operational Statistics
| Core Metric |
4Q23 |
3Q24 |
4Q24F |
YoY (%) |
QoQ (%) |
| OPD Visits/Day |
34,774 |
35,666 |
36,165 |
+4% |
+1% |
| Available Beds |
6,687 |
6,713 |
6,713 |
0% |
0% |
| Average Daily Census |
4,604 |
5,163 |
4,604 |
0% |
-11% |
2024 Financial Forecast
UOB Kay Hian has downgraded its 2024 net profit forecast for BDMS by 7.4%, aligning with weaker-than-expected growth from Thai patients. However, the long-term outlook remains promising, driven by international patient growth and alternative revenue streams such as BDMS’s Wellness and Residence business.
Key Financial Projections
| Year |
2023 |
2024F |
2025F |
2026F |
| Net Turnover (Btm) |
100,853 |
108,080 |
117,199 |
123,353 |
| EBITDA (Btm) |
24,784 |
26,654 |
29,618 |
31,208 |
| Net Profit (Btm) |
14,375 |
15,795 |
18,084 |
19,133 |
| Net Margin (%) |
14.3% |
14.6% |
15.4% |
15.5% |
Key Drivers and Risks
BDMS’s growth trajectory is anchored on new projects like the BDMS Silver Wellness & Residence at Lumphini. Expected to require a Bt25 billion investment, the project is projected to yield a 10% internal rate of return. However, the insurance co-payment condition starting in 2026 could slightly dampen patient demand, though its impact on BDMS is expected to be minimal.
Valuation and Recommendation
UOB Kay Hian maintains a BUY recommendation for BDMS with a target price of Bt33.00, representing a potential upside of 38.1%. The valuation is based on a five-year EV/EBITDA multiple of 18.0x, excluding COVID-19 years. BDMS remains a compelling investment option due to its steady patient growth, robust expansion strategies, and alternative revenue streams.
