Genting Singapore: Vying for Precious Tourists
Genting Singapore (GENS) is at a pivotal point as it battles for its share of international tourists in a recovering market. With Marina Bay Sands (MBS) reporting record-breaking mass gross gaming revenue (GGR) of US\$746 million in Q4 2024, GENS faces heightened competition. While MBS benefited from its suite renovation and refurbishment programs, which added 171 suites and brought its total room inventory to 1,627, GENS experienced setbacks due to ongoing upgrading works that sidelined 384 rooms from its Hard Rock Hotel. These renovations include enhancements at Universal Studios and the SEA Aquarium, potentially deterring visitors during the transition period.
The Singapore Tourism Board reported international visitor arrivals (IVAs) in November 2024 reached only 80.5% of pre-pandemic 2019 levels. This recovery appears event-driven, with blockbuster events like the Singapore Airshow and concerts by artists such as Taylor Swift providing temporary spikes. However, with a less robust event lineup in 2025, a comparable influx of tourists is expected, potentially limiting volume-driven growth for GENS.
GENS is trading at a five-year-low 12-month forward EV/EBITDA of 5.6x and offers an attractive yield of approximately 5.5%. The report reiterates an “Add” recommendation with a target price (TP) of S\$1.05, pegged at 8x FY26F EV/EBITDA. Key catalysts for re-rating include higher-than-expected win rates and increased tourist arrivals, while risks involve delays in construction and elevated bad debt recognition.
Malaysian Peers: Genting Malaysia and Genting Berhad
Genting Malaysia
Genting Malaysia (GENM) is positioned for significant growth with a strong 44.8% three-year EPS compound annual growth rate (CAGR) projected. The stock’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for CY24F stands at 16.8x, expected to improve to 12.7x in CY25F. GENM demonstrates a healthy dividend yield of 6.7% in CY24F, increasing to 7.4% in CY25F. Operating EBITDA is also poised to grow, bolstered by enhanced tourist inflows and operational efficiencies. The recommendation for GENM is “Add” with a target price of MYR 3.65.
Genting Berhad
Genting Berhad (GENT) reflects stability with a modest three-year EPS CAGR of 11.1%, while its P/E ratios for CY24F and CY25F are projected at 8.2x and 7.7x, respectively. The company’s dividend yield for CY24F is estimated at 4.1%, maintaining the same level into CY25F. Its operational strength is underlined by its ability to sustain a strong margin profile amidst a challenging environment. The recommendation for GENT is “Add” with a target price of MYR 6.65.
Korean Peers: Paradise, Grand Korea Leisure, and Kangwon Land
Paradise
Paradise Co. Ltd. demonstrates steady improvement with a 6.1% three-year EPS CAGR and P/E ratios of 15.6x for CY24F and 13.4x for CY25F. Dividend yields remain modest at 1.0%, but the company is expected to benefit from recovering tourist volumes and a stable gaming market. The recommendation for Paradise is “Add” with a target price of KRW 11,000.
Grand Korea Leisure
Grand Korea Leisure (GKL) presents a more volatile outlook, with a 17.4% three-year EPS CAGR but facing challenges such as a significant decline in net gearing. P/E ratios stand at 20.4x for CY24F and improve to 13.3x for CY25F. The dividend yield is projected to grow from 3.0% in CY24F to 3.0% in CY25F. The recommendation for GKL is “Add” with a target price of KRW 13,000.
Kangwon Land
Kangwon Land faces a more challenging environment with a negative three-year EPS CAGR of -4.6%. However, it maintains a stable P/E ratio of 12.3x for both CY24F and CY25F. The company offers a dividend yield of 4.7% for both years. The recommendation for Kangwon Land is “Add” with a target price of KRW 19,000.
Global Peers: Melco Resorts, MGM Resorts, Wynn Macau, Wynn Resorts, and Las Vegas Sands
Melco Resorts & Entertainment
Melco Resorts & Entertainment (MLCO) faces significant challenges with deeply negative EPS growth rates of -712.3% for CY24F and -673.4% for CY25F. Despite this, its EV/EBITDA ratios remain attractive at 7.9x for CY24F and 7.7x for CY25F, suggesting potential for long-term recovery. The stock is not rated.
MGM Resorts International
MGM Resorts shows a mixed outlook with a -4.7% three-year EPS CAGR but a strong recovery trajectory in CY25F. Dividend yields for CY24F are projected at 0.0%, and EV/EBITDA ratios are relatively low at 3.2x for both years. The stock is not rated.
Wynn Macau
Wynn Macau faces headwinds with negative EPS growth at -235.8% for CY24F and -221.7% for CY25F. The company’s EV/EBITDA ratios are projected at 6.9x for CY24F and 7.0x for CY25F. Dividend yields are expected to grow from 2.8% in CY24F to 3.1% in CY25F. The stock is not rated.
Wynn Resorts
Wynn Resorts struggles with significant negative EPS growth rates of -738.2% for CY24F and -723.2% for CY25F. However, its EV/EBITDA ratios remain higher at 8.7x for CY24F and 8.6x for CY25F. Dividend yields are expected to grow modestly from 1.3% in CY24F to 1.7% in CY25F. The stock is not rated.
Las Vegas Sands
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) stands out as a leader with strong EPS growth rates of 224.7% for CY24F and 205.2% for CY25F. EV/EBITDA ratios are 10.7x for CY24F and 9.4x for CY25F, and dividend yields are expected to rise from 1.7% in CY24F to 2.1% in CY25F. The stock is not rated.
Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Analysis
Genting Singapore received a combined ESG score of “B” from LSEG in 2023. The company operates within Singapore’s highly regulated integrated resort industry, which promotes responsible gaming. GENS has implemented initiatives such as facial recognition programs to enhance compliance and aims to improve its governance pillar through increased disclosures and long-term sustainability targets aligned with the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Climate Agreement. Despite a slight deterioration in its controversies score, GENS continues to collaborate with regulators to uphold high compliance standards.
