Bank Syariah Indonesia: A New Year of Opportunities and Growth

Bank Syariah Indonesia (BRIS) is set for another strong year, with its consumer-focused loan growth strategy continuing to pay dividends. As of November 2024, BRIS achieved a 16.8% year-on-year loan growth, surpassing its FY24 guidance of over 15%. Notably, its gold business has shown impressive traction, contributing approximately 4.5% to its total loan balance, split evenly between gold installment and gold pawning businesses.

The launch of a new mobile banking app is expected to enhance BRIS’s funding franchise and cement its strong position. EPS growth is projected to reach high teens in FY25-26, driven by sustainable loan growth and improved profitability. Key metrics for FY25 include a net interest margin (NIM) of 6.0%, a cost-income ratio (CIR) of 46.5%, and a gross NPL ratio of 1.9%. The recommendation for BRIS is Add.

Bank Negara Indonesia: Further Upside from Funding Transformation

Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI) is focusing on a funding transformation to improve its cost structure and enhance profitability. While FY25 loan growth is projected at 9.8%, slightly more conservative than previous years due to tight deposit liquidity, the bank is strategically recalibrating its SME and consumer segments to drive growth. The wholesale and corporate segments remain the primary engines of expansion.

BBNI’s key metrics include a projected NIM of 4.4%, a CIR of 46.7%, and a gross NPL ratio of 1.8% for FY25. The bank is expected to deliver a net profit of Rp24,993 billion in FY25, reflecting a 9.8% growth over the previous year. The recommendation for BBNI is Add.

Bank Rakyat Indonesia: Asset Quality Recovery Underway

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) is prioritizing loan quality in the micro segment, leading to a gradual recovery in micro loan growth. The corporate segment, a significant growth driver in FY24, is expected to normalize in FY25. Loan growth for FY25 is forecasted at 8.2%, with a projected NIM of 7.7% and a CIR of 46.5%.

BBRI’s emphasis on ESG initiatives and its ultra-micro segment through PT Permodalan Nasional Madani is noteworthy. With a strong ESG rating and sustainable portfolio growth, BBRI is well-positioned for long-term gains. The recommendation for BBRI is Add.

Bank Central Asia: Consistent Growth and Strong Fundamentals

Bank Central Asia (BBCA) continues to demonstrate robust performance, with a projected loan growth of 9.2% in FY25. The bank’s strong CASA ratio of 80.5% underpins its low-cost funding structure. Key metrics for FY25 include a NIM of 5.8%, a CIR of 35.5%, and a gross NPL ratio of 1.9%.

BBCA’s net profit for FY25 is expected to reach Rp58,787 billion, representing a 6.7% growth. With a focus on digital transformation and operational efficiency, BBCA remains a leader in the Indonesian banking sector. The recommendation for BBCA is Add.

Bank Mandiri: Optimizing Growth Amid Challenges

Bank Mandiri (BMRI) is navigating a challenging liquidity environment with a focus on SME growth and cost efficiency. FY25 loan growth is projected at 12.2%, supported by a mid-teens growth in its SME portfolio. BMRI aims to maintain a flat NIM of 5.1% and a CIR of 37.5% in FY25.

Despite potential NIM pressure in 1H25, BMRI’s robust loan book and operational strategies position it for steady growth. The bank’s net profit for FY25 is forecasted at Rp85,669 billion, reflecting a 9.1% growth. The recommendation for BMRI is Add.

Bank Tabungan Negara: Aiming for Growth Recovery

Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN) is focusing on improving its loan portfolio and operational efficiency. Loan growth for FY25 is projected at 11.6%, with a NIM of 3.6% and a CIR of 55.3%. Despite challenges, BBTN’s net profit is expected to grow by 19.3% to Rp4,399 billion in FY25.

The bank’s emphasis on cost management and digital initiatives will be critical for its recovery trajectory. The recommendation for BBTN is Add.

Bank Jago: Expanding with a Focus on Efficiency

Bank Jago is leveraging its digital-first approach to drive growth, with a projected loan growth of 39.0% in FY25. The bank’s NIM is expected to improve to 7.8%, supported by efficient cost management and fee-based income growth. Key metrics for FY25 include a CIR of 63.1% and a gross NPL ratio of 0.9%.

Bank Jago’s net profit for FY25 is forecasted at Rp360 billion, marking a significant turnaround. The recommendation for Bank Jago is Add.

Bank Neo Commerce: Challenges in Loan Growth

Bank Neo Commerce (BBYB) faces challenges in sustaining loan growth, impacted by a freeze on a key loan channeling partner. Loan growth for FY25 is projected at 20.9%, with a NIM of 16.3% and a CIR of 35.4%. Despite operational improvements, BBYB’s net profit for FY25 is expected to reach Rp138 billion, reflecting an 840% growth.

The bank’s focus on financial inclusion and efficiency will be critical in overcoming its challenges. The recommendation for BBYB is Hold.