Innovent Biologics: A Visionary in Biologics Innovation

Innovent Biologics, one of China’s leading biologics innovators, is positioned for significant growth in the coming years. The company, trading at HK\$36.25, has received a “BUY” recommendation with an impressive target price of HK\$52.00, offering an upside of 43.5%.

Revenue Growth and Product Expansion

Innovent anticipates a robust 40% year-on-year growth in product revenue, projecting figures to exceed RMB 8.2 billion for 2024. With an expected surge in Q4 2024 revenue to over RMB 2 billion, the company is demonstrating strong sales momentum. Innovent is preparing to launch six innovative products in 2025, marking a pivotal year for its growth trajectory.

Innovative Product Pipeline

The company aims to introduce three oncology products in 2025:

• DOVBLERON (ROS1 inhibitor): Approved in January 2024.
• Limertinib (EGFR TKI): Approved in January 2025, targeting lung cancer.
• JAYPIRCA (BTK inhibitor): In-licensed in December 2024 for hematological malignancies.

Other notable drugs under review include:

• Mazdutide: A GCG/GLP-1 dual receptor agonist for obesity and type 2 diabetes.
• Teprotumumab: An anti-IGF-1R monoclonal antibody.
• Picankibart: An anti-IL-23p19 monoclonal antibody.

Approval from the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) is expected to propel these products into the market, enriching the company’s portfolio.

Long-Term Revenue Target

Innovent has set an ambitious target of reaching RMB 20 billion in domestic product revenue by 2027. This equates to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 30% from 2024 to 2027. The anticipated approval of Mazdutide in 2025 is expected to significantly contribute to these numbers.

Profitability and Operational Efficiency

The company is on track to achieve profitability by 2025, supported by declining R&D and operational expenses as a percentage of revenue. R&D expenses are projected to drop from 35.9% in 2023 to 25.0% in 2026. Cost control measures are also expected to improve selling and general administrative expenses.

Globalization Efforts

Innovent is actively pursuing globalization, as evidenced by its exclusive licensing agreement with Roche for the DLL3-targeted antibody drug conjugate, IBI3009. With investigational new drug approvals in Australia, China, and the US, Innovent stands to receive up to USD 1 billion in milestone payments and mid-teens royalties on net sales.

Risks and Recommendations

While Innovent remains a strong contender in the biologics space, risks include regulatory policies, R&D delays, and intensified competition. However, the company’s strong R&D pipeline and strategic partnerships make it a compelling investment. UOB Kay Hian maintains a “BUY” rating, bolstered by strong revenue potential and a higher target price of HK\$52.00.

Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index Outlook

The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 21,133.54 last week, showing strength above its major moving averages. However, the index faces significant resistance around the 21,000 mark, a level it has struggled to breach consistently since October 2024.

Technical Analysis of HSI

The weekly chart indicates a volatility range of 1,449 points, with the index holding above its 10- and 20-week moving averages. The daily chart reveals a strengthening trend, with the 14-day RSI nearing the overbought zone at 70. If the HSI stabilizes above 21,000, the expected trading range could shift to 20,000–23,000 points. Otherwise, it may remain within 19,000–21,000 points.

Hang Seng Tech Index

The Hang Seng Tech Index (HS TECH) closed at 5,150.35, showing stronger momentum compared to the HSI. Last week, the index formed a long white candlestick on the weekly chart, breaking out of its trading range with a bullish gap. The RSI has entered the overbought zone, signaling potential short-term pullbacks. However, its upward trend remains intact, with an optimistic target of 5,400 points.