Aneka Tambang (ANTM): Solid Gold Performance and Nickel Recovery Potential

Aneka Tambang (ANTM), one of Indonesia’s largest producers of gold, ferronickel, and nickel ore, is positioning itself strategically for growth amidst market fluctuations. The company’s integrated mining and processing facilities have contributed to a diversified portfolio, including silver, bauxite, coal, and other precious metals.

Gold Business: Driving Profitability

Aneka Tambang’s gold segment emerged as the star performer in 2024, with net profit soaring to Rp2.08 trillion, marking a remarkable 79.1% year-on-year increase. Gold accounted for an impressive 93% of the company’s total net profit, excluding head office and other expenses. Sales volume surged by 68% year-on-year to 1.4 million ounces, driven by robust demand despite economic uncertainties. Looking ahead, the establishment of a bullion bank, supported by regulatory changes (POJK 17 Tahun 2024), is expected to make gold savings more accessible, further boosting demand.

Nickel Sector: Signs of a Turnaround

The nickel segment, however, faced challenges in 2024, with net profit plunging by 84.6% year-on-year to Rp476 billion. This was largely due to lower sales volumes caused by delays in the approval of the Annual Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) and declining nickel LME prices. Nonetheless, Aneka Tambang has guided a robust 50.9% year-on-year growth in nickel saprolite ore production, targeting 15 million wet metric tons (wmt) in 2025. The premiumisation of saprolite ore prices, currently trading approximately 50% above reference prices, signals a potential recovery in this segment.

Operational Highlights

• Gold sales in 4Q24 reached 488,000 ounces, up 128.1% year-on-year and 20.7% quarter-on-quarter.
• Nickel ore sales stood at 2.3 million wmt, reflecting a 14.9% year-on-year increase.
• Bauxite production showed a 24.9% year-on-year growth in 4Q24, with plans to supply 3 million wmt annually to the Mempawah Smelter Grade Alumina (SGAR) facility once it reaches full capacity.

Financial Metrics

Aneka Tambang trades attractively at 4.7x 2025F consensus EV/EBITDA, below its five-year average. Key financial figures include:

• 2023 net turnover: Rp41,048 billion
• 2023 EBITDA: Rp4,086 billion
• 2023 net profit: Rp3,078 billion

Hartadinata Abadi: Gold Bar and Jewelry Excellence

Hartadinata Abadi, a leading player in gold bars and jewelry, maintains a strong market presence with a focus on profitability. The company’s projected PE ratio for 2025 is an attractive 5.4x, supported by a robust return on equity (ROE) of 15.2%. Despite its smaller market capitalization of \$128 million, Hartadinata demonstrates resilience and growth potential in Indonesia’s gold market.

Merdeka Battery Materials: High Growth Trajectory

Merdeka Battery Materials, a key player in the battery materials sector, boasts a market capitalization of \$2,572 million. The company is positioned for significant growth, with a projected 2025 PE ratio of 11.9x and an EV/EBITDA of 6.0x. However, its ROE of 4.3% highlights a relatively moderate profitability outlook compared to its peers. Merdeka’s focus on battery materials aligns with the global shift towards sustainable energy solutions, making it a promising investment candidate.

Trimegah Bangun Persada: Competitive Nickel Player

Trimegah Bangun Persada is a competitive player in the nickel sector with a market capitalization of \$2,370 million. The company’s projected 2025 PE ratio of 4.6x and EV/EBITDA of 4.3x position it as a value pick in the industry. A strong ROE of 27.6% underscores its operational efficiency, while its negative net gearing ratio (-18.0%) highlights a healthy financial structure. Trimegah is well-poised to benefit from the premiumisation of nickel prices and the recovery in global demand.

Vale Indonesia: Established Nickel Giant

Vale Indonesia, a long-standing player in the nickel market, faces challenges with a high 2025 PE ratio of 33.2x. Despite a relatively low EV/EBITDA of 4.8x, the company’s ROE of 2.7% reflects limited profitability. With a market capitalization of \$1,751 million, Vale Indonesia remains a key player in the industry but may struggle to keep pace with more agile competitors like Trimegah Bangun Persada.

Peer Comparison and Final Thoughts

When compared to its peers, Aneka Tambang stands out with its attractive valuation metrics, trading at 4.7x 2025F EV/EBITDA, lower than the peer average of 5.1x. The company’s strong gold performance and potential recovery in the nickel segment position it favorably for investors seeking a balanced exposure to precious metals and base metals.

Hartadinata Abadi shines as a high-margin gold player, while Merdeka Battery Materials offers growth opportunities in the battery sector. Trimegah Bangun Persada emerges as a value pick in the nickel market, with Vale Indonesia maintaining its position as an established industry giant.