Argus Research Co.

Friday, April 25, 2025

Navigating the Innovation Economy: A Comprehensive Market Outlook and Stock Analysis

Market Overview

The intermediate-term market outlook is Neutral. [[1]] The portfolio strategy allocates 70% to equity and 1% to cash. [[1]]

Today’s Market Movers

• Global Shares Mixed
• China Slows Trade Hopes
• GOOGL Up on EPS Beat
• INTC Off on Guidance

Recent Research Review

The report reviews research on the following companies: UL, FI, LVS, MAS, DGX, RF, BMI, MAN, TSLA, VMC, CFG, NEE, DHR, COF, FL, JBHT, KMB, SON, VZ, WYNN. [[1]]

Key Statistics

Here’s a snapshot of crucial market statistics:

• 12-Month S&P 500 Forecast: 5100-6700 [[1]]
• S&P 500 Current/Next EPS: 276/307 [[1]]
• S&P 500 P/E: 19.87 [[1]]
• 12-Month S&P P/E Range: 16.6 – 21.8 [[1]]
• 10-Year Yield: 4.31% [[1]]
• 12-Month 10-Yr. Bond Forecast: 3.50-4.50% [[1]]
• Current Fed Funds Target: 4.37% [[1]]
• 12-Month Fed Funds Forecast: 4.25-4.50% [[1]]

Previous 200-Day Close Average

• DJIA: 40093.40 (Close), 42200.03 (Average) [[1]]
• S&P 500: 5484.77 (Close), 5747.62 (Average) [[1]]
• NASDAQ: 17166.04 (Close), 18350.33 (Average) [[1]]
• Lrg/Small Cap: 1.53 (Close), 1.43 (Average) [[1]]
• Growth/Value: 2.06 (Close), 2.05 (Average) [[1]]

Daily Spotlight: The Case for Innovation

Innovation is critical for the U.S. economy, especially as manufacturing industries have shifted overseas. [[1]] The U.S. economy has expanded significantly despite challenges like the pandemic and high inflation. [[1]] This growth is driven by innovation, creating new products and services, and moving into new markets. [[1]]

U.S. GDP has grown from approximately \$1 trillion in 1930 to almost \$30 trillion at the end of 2024, a 30-fold increase. [[2]] Meanwhile, the U.S. population has grown less than 3-times. [[2]] The value of listed corporations on U.S. stock exchanges at the end of 2024 was approximately \$60 trillion, representing 48% of global equity market capitalization, while U.S. GDP represented only 26% of global GDP in purchasing power parity terms. [[2]] The strong U.S. dollar reflects global investors’ confidence in the U.S. economy. [[3]]

Current Ranking

• Five-Day Put/Call: 0.87 Positive [[3]]
• Momentum: 7002000 Negative [[3]]
• Bullish Sentiment: 22% Positive [[3]]
• Mutual Fund Cash: 1.70% Negative [[3]]
• Vickers Insider Index: 2.73 Neutral [[3]]

Stockpicker’s Corner: Constellation Energy Corporation (NGS: CEG) – BUY

Constellation Energy is a new holding in the Innovation theme model portfolio. [[3]] It is the nation’s largest producer of carbon-free energy and a supplier of energy products and services. [[3]] Its assets include nuclear, wind, solar, natural gas, and hydroelectric facilities. [[3]] Constellation is viewed as a well-run, financially strong company poised to capitalize on the global transition to carbon-free energy. [[3]] The company has a healthy EBITDA margin in the 20%-25% range. [[3]]

Disclaimer

Argus Research Co. (ARC) is an independent investment research provider. [[4]] Argus Investors’ Counsel, Inc. (AIC), its parent company, is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. [[4]] Neither The Argus Research Group nor any affiliate is a member of the FINRA or the SIPC. [[4]] Argus Research is not a registered broker dealer and does not have investment banking operations. [[4]]

The information in this report is copyrighted by Argus Research Co., and unauthorized use is prohibited. [[4]] The opinions and information are from sources believed to be reliable, but Argus makes no guarantees regarding timeliness, accuracy, or completeness. [[4]] This report is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. [[4]]

The information is for general information only and does not address individual investment objectives or financial situations. [[5]] Consult an independent investment advisor. [[5]] Argus may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with this one, and opinions reflect judgments made on the original date of publication. [[5]] Argus accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this report. [[5]]

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