Overview of the S&P 500 Earnings Scorecard

The S&P 500 Earnings Scorecard, compiled by LSEG, offers the most up-to-date and comprehensive insights into the earnings performance of companies within the S&P 500 Index. This analysis combines historical earnings data, in-depth Wall Street analyst estimates, and proprietary research to deliver unmatched market intelligence for investors.

2024 Q4 Earnings Dashboard

The 2024 Q4 earnings season delivered a blend of revelations across multiple sectors, with a focus on aggregate earnings and revenue growth. The blended reported and estimated earnings growth for the quarter stood at 13.4%, a slight uptick from the 13.0% recorded at the beginning of January. Actual earnings growth for the S&P 500 came in at an impressive 25.8%, showcasing resilience despite fluctuating market conditions.

Sector-Wise Earnings Performance

Key sectors demonstrated varying performance levels during the quarter:

• Technology: Delivered robust blended earnings growth of 15.3%. Actual earnings growth was higher at 22.6%.
• Communication Services: Reported earnings growth of 11.4%, reflecting stability in a competitive sector.
• Health Care: Showcased consistent growth with a blended rate of 10.4%.
• Energy: Recorded a substantial downturn with actual earnings growth of -33.4%, driven by fluctuating oil prices and demand.
• Utilities: Achieved moderate growth, with a blended earnings growth rate of 9.8%.

Revenue Performance Highlights

Total revenue growth for the S&P 500 in 2024 Q4 was 4.5%, reflecting a mix of above and below expectations across sectors. The following sectors stood out:

• Consumer Discretionary: Revenue growth remained steady at 7.8%, driven by high consumer spending.
• Consumer Staples: Delivered a modest growth of 1.4%, reflecting stable demand for essential goods.
• Energy: Revenue growth declined by -4.3%, correlating with weaker earnings in this sector.
• Technology: Posted strong revenue growth of 11.1%, showcasing continued innovation and demand in the sector.

Quarterly Earnings Surprises

The earnings surprise factor for 2024 Q4 showed that 78.2% of companies outperformed analyst expectations, while 14.1% fell below expectations. Notable sectors included:

• Technology: Strongly outperformed with 88% of companies exceeding earnings forecasts.
• Energy: Underperformed significantly, with 33% of companies missing projections.
• Utilities: Achieved a high surprise rate of 90%, indicating better-than-expected performance.

Year-Over-Year Growth Analysis

Year-over-year growth rates highlighted the following trends:

• Technology outpaced other sectors with a growth rate of 27.6%.
• Energy suffered a dramatic decline in earnings, falling by -33.4%.
• Industrials and Consumer Discretionary sectors maintained steady growth at 15.3% and 11.4%, respectively.

Historical and Future Earnings Projections

Looking ahead, the S&P 500 is projected to sustain earnings growth in 2025, with an estimated overall growth rate of 10.5%. Key highlights include:

• Technology: Expected to maintain double-digit growth at 15.8%.
• Health Care: Anticipated to grow by 13.8% in the coming quarters.
• Energy: Projected to recover with a growth rate of 4.3%, bouncing back from the downturn in 2024.

Valuation Metrics and Market Insights

The S&P 500’s trailing 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stood at 25.2, while the forward P/E ratio was 22.4. These metrics indicate reasonable valuations given the robust earnings growth observed in 2024.

The composite index closed at 6,118.71 on January 23, 2025, reflecting positive sentiment and optimism for future growth.

Conclusion

The 2024 Q4 S&P 500 Earnings Scorecard reveals a mixed but largely positive outlook for U.S. equities. While sectors like Technology, Health Care, and Consumer Discretionary continue to drive growth, challenges remain for Energy and other underperforming sectors. With strong forward projections and a high percentage of earnings surprises, the S&P 500 is well-positioned for continued growth in 2025.