Supalai’s 2025 Strategy: Doubling Condo Launches and Targeting 19.7% Presales Growth

Comprehensive Analysis of Supalai and its Peers in the Thai Property Sector

Broker: CGS International

Date: February 4, 2025

Introduction

The Thai property development sector is buzzing with activity as key players unveil their business plans and strategies for 2025. This report provides an in-depth analysis of Supalai (SPALI) and its peers, including AP Thailand, Land and Houses, LPN Development, Pruksa Holding, Quality Houses, Sansiri, Origin Property, and SC Asset. From financial forecasts to strategic moves, here’s everything investors need to know.

Supalai (SPALI)

Supalai remains a dominant force in the Thai property market, with a focused strategy for 2025. The company plans to launch 36 projects worth THB46 billion, a 12.2% decline from 2024 due to fewer low-rise housing projects. However, it aims to double its condominium launches to eight projects valued at THB12.8 billion, targeting both Bangkok and tourist hotspots like Phuket and Pattaya. These new condos will cater to the affordable segment priced at THB60k-80k per square meter, while low-rise housing focuses on the mid-range segment priced at THB5-10 million per unit.

SPALI targets presales of THB32 billion in 2025, a 19.7% increase year-on-year, driven by a 23.5% rise in low-rise housing presales and a 13.2% growth in condo presales. Revenue, however, is projected to decline by 4.8% to THB30 billion. The company also expects net profit growth of 3.2%, supported by its expanding presence in Australia through joint ventures estimated to contribute THB749 million in profits, doubling year-on-year.

Challenges include discounts on inventory sales amid weak market sentiment, potentially reducing residential gross margins from 37.7% in 2024 to 37.4% in 2025. Nevertheless, SPALI maintains a strong balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.57x and offers attractive dividend yields of 8.5-8.8% for 2024-2025.

Recommendation: Add. Target price: THB18.50.

AP Thailand (AP)

AP Thailand is poised for steady growth, with a target price of THB9.60. The company’s forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 5.1x, 4.6x, and 4.3x, respectively. Core earnings per share (EPS) growth is projected at -18.9% in 2024, followed by a recovery of 10.1% in 2025 and 6.6% in 2026. AP Thailand offers dividend yields of 8.0%, 8.7%, and 9.3% over the next three years, with a price-to-book value (P/BV) ratio declining from 0.57x in 2024 to 0.49x in 2026.

Recommendation: Add. Target price: THB9.60.

Land and Houses (LH)

Land and Houses is a stable player in the market with a target price of THB5.00. The company’s P/E ratios stand at 13.7x, 12.0x, and 10.5x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting conservative growth. Core EPS is expected to decline by 28% in 2024 but rebound by 14.1% in 2025 and 13.6% in 2026. Dividend yields are projected at 6.2%, 5.2%, and 6.0% over the next three years.

Recommendation: Hold. Target price: THB5.00.

LPN Development (LPN)

LPN Development faces challenges as reflected in its Reduce rating. The target price is set at THB2.78, with P/E ratios of 10.9x, 10.6x, and 9.8x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. EPS growth is sluggish at -16.5% in 2024, 2.8% in 2025, and 8.4% in 2026. Dividend yields remain modest at 4.7%, 4.9%, and 5.3% for the next three years.

Recommendation: Reduce. Target price: THB2.78.

Pruksa Holding (PSH)

Pruksa Holding is expected to experience significant growth, with a target price of THB8.00. The company’s P/E ratios are 12.0x, 9.1x, and 8.0x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. Core EPS growth is forecasted at -22.2% in 2024, followed by a robust recovery of 31.6% in 2025 and 13.9% in 2026. Dividend yields are attractive at 10.2%, 10.7%, and 11.9% over the next three years.

Recommendation: Hold. Target price: THB8.00.

Quality Houses (QH)

Quality Houses is positioned for moderate growth, with a target price of THB1.90. The company’s P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 7.9x, 7.5x, and 7.2x, respectively. EPS growth is projected at -9.1% in 2024, 5.0% in 2025, and 5.3% in 2026. Dividend yields are forecasted at 7.6%, 8.0%, and 8.5% over the next three years.

Recommendation: Hold. Target price: THB1.90.

Sansiri (SIRI)

Sansiri is a promising player with a target price of THB2.12. The company’s P/E ratios stand at 6.3x, 5.5x, and 5.4x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. EPS growth is expected at -9.1% in 2024, followed by a recovery of 13.0% in 2025 and a modest 2.8% in 2026. Dividend yields are attractive at 9.7%, 10.3%, and 10.6% over the next three years.

Recommendation: Add. Target price: THB2.12.

Origin Property (ORI)

Origin Property faces challenges with a Reduce rating and a target price of THB3.88. The company’s P/E ratios are 4.2x, 4.4x, and 4.3x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. EPS growth is weak at -30.9% in 2024, -5.2% in 2025, and 2.6% in 2026. Dividend yields are forecasted at 7.7%, 7.9%, and 8.4% over the next three years.

Recommendation: Reduce. Target price: THB3.88.

SC Asset (SC)

SC Asset is expected to grow steadily, with a target price of THB3.14. The company’s P/E ratios are 6.5x, 5.4x, and 4.7x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. EPS growth is forecasted at -28.9% in 2024, followed by a recovery of 19.6% in 2025 and 14.4% in 2026. Dividend yields are projected at 7.1%, 7.6%, and 8.7% over the next three years.

Recommendation: Add. Target price: THB3.14.