Comprehensive Analysis of Key Thai Stocks: February 10, 2025

Broker: UOB Kay Hian Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited

Date of Report: February 10, 2025

Advanced Info Service (ADVANC): A Telecommunication Giant on the Rise

Recommendation: BUY (Maintained)
Target Price: Bt330.00
Upside: +17.9%

ADVANC, Thailand’s largest telecommunication provider, delivered a stellar performance in 4Q24 with a net profit of Bt9.3 billion, marking a 32% year-on-year (yoy) and 5% quarter-on-quarter (qoq) growth. This result exceeded consensus forecasts by 5%, driven by higher revenue, improved gross margins, and reduced SG&A-to-sales ratios.

Key highlights include:

• Revenue Growth: Total revenue for 4Q24 was Bt56.7 billion, an increase of 11% yoy and 9% qoq. This was bolstered by seasonal ARPU growth and contributions from Triple T Broadband (TTTBB).
• Mobile Business: Subscriber base reached 45.8 million with blended ARPU at Bt228/month (+2% yoy, +2% qoq).
• Fixed Broadband: Revenue surged 52% yoy with ARPU at Bt509/month.

Outlook: ADVANC is poised for continued growth in 2025, with mobile revenue projected to grow by 5% yoy. Additionally, the company has announced a dividend of Bt5.74/share for 2H24, bringing the total dividend yield for 2024 to 3.2%.

Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR): Steady Growth Amid Recovery

Recommendation: BUY (Maintained)
Target Price: Bt22.00
Upside: +26.4%

TIDLOR, a leading non-bank financial institution in Thailand, posted a record high net profit of Bt4.2 billion in 2024, up 11.6% yoy. The 4Q24 net profit of Bt1.04 billion was in line with expectations, showing a 16% yoy and 5% qoq growth.

Key insights include:

• Loan Portfolio: Grew 6.6% yoy to Bt103.9 billion in 4Q24, supported by 31 new store openings.
• Asset Quality: Improved with NPL ratio declining to 1.81% and coverage ratio rising to 243%.
• Credit Cost: Reduced significantly to 272bp in 4Q24 from 391bp in 3Q24.

Outlook: TIDLOR is expected to maintain stringent lending policies and achieve further loan portfolio expansion. The company’s 2024 dividend yield is projected at 1.6% with promising growth in non-interest income.

SVI (SVI): Strong Earnings Beat Expectations

Recommendation: BUY (Maintained)
Target Price: Bt8.00
Upside: +15.9%

SVI, a leading EMS provider, delivered a robust 4Q24 performance with a net profit of Bt318 million, up 44% yoy and 93% qoq. The results exceeded consensus estimates by 36%, driven by higher gross margins and currency benefits.

Key aspects include:

• Revenue: 4Q24 revenue stood at Bt5.3 billion, flat yoy and qoq, but supported by strong performance in communication and automotive sectors.
• Gross Margin: Improved to 9.3%, up from 8.2% in 4Q23.
• Dividend: Announced at Bt0.24/share for 2024, implying a 3.5% yield.

Outlook: SVI expects revenue growth of 10-15% in 2025, supported by increased demand in bitcoin mining, industrial control, and security cameras.

Banpu (BANPU): Challenges Persist Amid Gas Recovery

Recommendation: HOLD (Maintained)
Target Price: Bt5.00
Upside: +5.5%

BANPU faced headwinds in 4Q24, with an expected net loss of Bt1.1 billion due to weak performance in the utilities and coal businesses. However, the US gas business showed signs of recovery with higher selling prices.

Key details include:

• Coal Business: Declining sales prices in Indonesia and Australia impacted profitability.
• Gas Business: Higher demand led to a 21% qoq increase in selling prices.
• Divestment: Loss of Bt1.4 billion from the sale of the Nakoso Project.

Outlook: BANPU maintains a cautious stance on coal but is optimistic about its US gas operations. The company projects a Bt0.30/share dividend for 2024, with an 8-10% EBITDA contribution from gas business.

Minor International (MINT): Stellar Performance and Deleveraging Efforts

Recommendation: BUY (Maintained)
Target Price: Bt38.00
Upside: +52.6%

MINT is set to report a core profit of Bt3.1 billion for 4Q24, up 24.5% yoy and 18.1% qoq, driven by strong hotel performance in Europe, Thailand, and the Maldives.

Key highlights include:

• Hotel Business: RevPAR growth due to effective marketing strategies, especially in the Maldives.
• Deleveraging: Sale of account receivables to reduce debt, improving gearing ratios.
• Dividend: Expected at Bt1.8/share for 2024, reflecting a 2.3% yield.

Outlook: MINT’s valuation remains attractive, with robust hotel performance and a promising interest rate environment.

PTT (PTT): Recovery Expected After a Challenging Quarter

Recommendation: BUY (Maintained)
Target Price: Bt36.00
Upside: +17.07%

PTT’s 4Q24 net profit is projected to decline by 43% qoq and 71% yoy, primarily due to reduced sales volumes in the gas and GSP businesses and foreign exchange losses. However, 1Q25 is expected to see a recovery.

Key insights include:

• Gas Business: Gas pool prices declined by 6% qoq, with GSP sales volumes down 4% qoq.
• Dividends: 2H24 dividend projected at Bt1.00/share, with a total of Bt1.80/share for 2024.
• Subsidiary Performance: Affiliates such as PTTEP and GPSC are expected to contribute positively in 1Q25.

Outlook: Despite the challenges, PTT’s diversified portfolio and recovery in the GSP and petrochemical businesses offer optimism going forward.