Comprehensive Market Analysis: Asia Pacific Retail Research

Date: February 10, 2025

Broker: CGS

Overview of the Indices

The Asia Pacific Retail Research, powered by CGS, provides detailed insights into major indices and their performance for the week. Here’s a breakdown of the key trends and technical insights for significant indices across the Asia Pacific and US regions:

Nikkei 225 Index

The Nikkei 225 exhibited a retreat last week as anticipated, with a gap down nearing the lower boundary of its support at 38,100. The mid-term outlook remains rangebound, with the range tightening to 38,100–40,000. Selling pressure eased at 40,000, weakening resistance. However, a potential bull trap may occur if the index breaks near 41,000.

• Support Levels: 38,100.00, 36,600.00
• Resistance Levels: 40,000.00, 43,000.00
• Key Indicators: 23-period ROC above zero, overbought Stochastic Oscillator, and a flattening MACD signal line.

Hang Seng Index (HSI)

The HSI broke above the key resistance of 20,600, heading towards the target of 21,200. Price action indicates a bullish return, with expectations to edge higher towards the 21,930–22,000 region in the short term. However, longer-term momentum lacks confirmation for a sustained upside.

• Support Levels: 20,260.00, 19,000.00
• Resistance Levels: 22,946.00, 24,044.00
• Key Indicators: Positive MACD histogram, Stochastic Oscillator crossover, and bullish Ichimoku signals.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)

The DJIA rebounded at its 43,900 key support level but faced strong resistance at 45,000. A double-top formation suggests a potential 3-wave correction, targeting support at 43,400, with a possible extension to 42,900 if support breaks.

• Support Levels: 43,400.00, 42,300.00
• Resistance Levels: 45,000.00, 46,000.00
• Key Indicators: Elevated ADX and DM+, ROC above zero, and Ichimoku’s bullish golden cross.

CSI 300 Index

The CSI 300 index showed a weak bullish rebound at 3,700 but struggles to surpass the psychological resistance at 4,000. Mid-term bearish correction is likely, targeting a major support level at 3,510 if rejection occurs at 4,000.

• Support Levels: 3,700.00, 3,400.00
• Resistance Levels: 4,100.00, 4,270.00
• Key Indicators: Bearish MACD momentum, sluggish Ichimoku trend signals, and a potential Stochastic oversold crossover.

MSCI Singapore Index

The MSCI Singapore Index sustained above 384.00, forming a small consolidative pattern. The index is poised to reach 400.00 in the near term, with an upgraded long-term target of 409.00.

• Support Levels: 384.00, 368.00
• Resistance Levels: 400.00, 415.00
• Key Indicators: Positive ROC, strong Ichimoku upside signals, and ADX rising alongside DM+.

SET Index (Thailand)

The SET Index rebounded at the key support zone of 1,278–1,300 but faces strong resistance at 1,330. The index remains in a bearish phase and is likely to range between 1,247–1,330 in the near term.

• Support Levels: 1,278.50, 1,247.06
• Resistance Levels: 1,330.00, 1,435.00
• Key Indicators: Bearish MACD, elevated bearish DM-, and Ichimoku’s three bearish death crosses.

Jakarta Composite Index

The Jakarta Composite Index saw bearish pressure, breaking below 6,800 to reach 6,660. A short-term rebound may occur but is likely to face rejection at 6,820 or 6,940.

• Support Levels: 6,660.00, 6,500.00
• Resistance Levels: 6,940.00, 7,500.00
• Key Indicators: Bearish MACD, oversold Stochastic Oscillator with potential bullish divergence, and Ichimoku signals indicating a bearish trend.

Company Analysis and Recommendations

Parkway Life REIT

The 2H24/FY24 DPU of 7.38/14.92 cents was in line with forecasts, achieving 49.3% and 99.7% of the FY24F target. Robust FY25F DPU growth is anticipated, driven by its defensive Singapore income structure and full-year contributions from European properties.

Recommendation: Add

Target Price: S\$4.91

Siloam International Hospitals

Siloam International Hospitals is navigating private insurance issues, which are expected to be resolved soon. This resolution could improve their operational outlook and financial performance.

Recommendation: Not explicitly mentioned, but the outlook suggests potential improvement.

Bangchak Corp

Bangchak Corp faces rising operational headwinds. While no specific recommendation was provided, the ongoing challenges could weigh on its financial performance in the near term.

Recommendation: Not explicitly mentioned.

Conclusion

The comprehensive analysis by CGS highlights the dynamic nature of the Asia Pacific and US markets. While some indices show bullish potential, others remain constrained by bearish momentum or rangebound trading. Companies like Parkway Life REIT stand out with positive growth prospects, while entities such as Siloam International Hospitals and Bangchak Corp face challenges that may impact their immediate future. Investors are advised to monitor these developments closely and consider the recommendations provided for informed decision-making.