In a tale of two electric vehicle (EV) giants, Tesla and BYD are locked in a global battle for dominance — and while Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood remains staunchly bullish on Tesla’s future, China’s BYD is seizing the present.
Speaking at the HSBC Global Investment Summit in Hong Kong, Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Investment Management, reaffirmed her high-conviction forecast that Tesla stock could soar to US$2,600 within five years — a nearly 10-fold increase from its current level. She believes robo taxis will account for 90% of Tesla’s future value and adds that Ark’s projections don’t yet include the company’s humanoid robot initiatives, offering even more upside potential.
Despite the bold outlook, Tesla’s performance in 2025 has been shaky. The stock trades around US$278, after a recent rebound, but faces declining sales in key markets like Europe and China. CEO Elon Musk is also grappling with political blowback over domestic policy shifts, including job cuts linked to his Department of Government Efficiency.
Tesla remains the largest holding in Ark’s $5.8 billion ARK Innovation ETF, though its weighting has dropped from 16% in late 2024 to 10%. Previously, Ark forecasted a US$2,000 price target by 2027, hinging on autonomous ride-hailing platforms. Wood rose to fame during the pandemic for bold bets on disruptive tech names like Zoom and Roku, with Ark’s assets once topping US$60 billion.
While Tesla battles near-term headwinds, BYD is riding a surge. The Shenzhen-based auto giant overtook Tesla in 2024 revenue, posting 777 billion yuan (US$107.3 billion) — up 29% year-on-year, surpassing analyst expectations. Net income rose 34% to 40.3 billion yuan, comfortably beating forecasts.
Tesla’s revenue stood at US$97.7 billion, with US$7.6 billion in profit. While it retains a significantly higher market cap (US$800 billion vs BYD’s US$157 billion), BYD’s Hong Kong-listed shares are up 51% this year, reflecting investor confidence in its momentum.
BYD’s edge lies in scale and speed. It delivered 1.76 million EVs in 2024, nearly matching Tesla, and including hybrids, reached 4.27 million units — close to Ford’s total. For 2025, BYD is targeting 5–6 million vehicle sales and has already moved 623,300 units in the first two months, a 93% surge from a year earlier.
Technological innovation is also fueling BYD’s rise. The company introduced a 5-minute charging battery system capable of adding 400 km of range, and now equips advanced driver-assist features even in base models.
China remains BYD’s stronghold, commanding a 15% share of the total passenger car market, while Tesla has seen shipments decline for five straight months in the country. Though BYD hasn’t entered the U.S. passenger car market due to tariffs, its global footprint is growing fast, with strong traction in Europe, Australia, Singapore, and Thailand.
In a recent statement, BYD Chairman Wang Chuanfu declared that Chinese automakers are no longer followers, but global pacesetters in the intelligent EV era. He pledged to boost R&D and push for international leadership in electrification.
As the EV arms race accelerates, Wood’s long-term Tesla thesis remains intact — but BYD’s breakout performance is proving that the future of EVs may be built in China, even if it’s branded in America.
The company is forecasting 5 to 6 million vehicle sales in 2025, and it’s off to a flying start: BYD sold 623,300 units in the first two months, a staggering 93% jump year-on-year.
The innovation pipeline is also fueling investor enthusiasm. BYD recently unveiled a revolutionary 5-minute EV charging system, capable of providing 400 km of range, and rolled out advanced driver assistance features across its entire lineup — including base models.
Though Tesla continues to earn more profit per car and holds a commanding valuation lead, it’s losing ground in China, where shipments have declined for five consecutive months. Meanwhile, BYD commands nearly 15% market share in its home market — not just for EVs, but for all passenger vehicles.
BYD hasn’t entered the U.S. passenger car market due to tariffs on China-made autos, but its global footprint is expanding rapidly. The company has made significant strides in Europe, Australia, and Asian markets like Singapore and Thailand.
Chairman Wang Chuanfu emphasized in a statement that BYD will continue to ramp up R&D investments and strengthen its international competitiveness. He declared that Chinese automakers are no longer followers in the intelligent vehicle era, but “daring to be first in the world,” aiming to go global and climb the value chain alongside domestic peers.
As the EV race intensifies, BYD’s breakthrough year sends a clear message: Tesla may have sparked the revolution, but China is now setting the pace.
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